Top Expert NHL Prop Picks for Thursday

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: October 28, 2021 8:04 AM EDT • 3 min 40 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

GLENDALE, ARIZONA - OCTOBER 18: Vladimir Tarasenko #91 of the St. Louis Blues skates with the puck during the NHL game against the Arizona Coyotes at Gila River Arena on October 18, 2021 in Glendale, Arizona. The Blues defeated the Coyotes 7-4. Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Christian Petersen / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Thursday's hockey slate includes a bevy of late-night action. Our NHL betting experts assess the schedule with their top team and player prop picks.

Here's a look at the top NHL team and player props from our betting experts for Thursday's nine-game schedule.

NHL Team Prop Picks

Minnesota Wild 60-minute line (+130 at DraftKings Sportsbook) - Esten McLarenTampa Bay Lightning Over 3.5 goals (-140) - Ryan GilbertLightning Over 6.5 goals (+650 at DraftKings) - Swinging JohnsonCalgary Flames and Pittsburgh Penguins both to score, Calgary to win in regulation (+175 at Caesars) - Matt Jordan

NHL Player Prop Picks

Alex Killorn Over 0.5 power-play points (+270 at DraftKings) - McLarenVladimir Tarasenko Over 2.5 shots on goal (-140) - GilbertSteven Stamkos to score first (+800 at DraftKings) - JohnsonSebastian Aho Over 2.5 shots on goal (-125 at Caesars) - Jordan

Top Expert Team Prop Picks

Wild 60-minute line (+130 at DraftKings Sportsbook) - McLaren

The Wild (5-1-0) lead the NHL in Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5. The Seattle Kraken (2-4-1) are 16th with a 49.40 percent rate of shot attempts at full strength. Greater than the discrepancy in the possession rates is Minnesota’s league-high 63.00 percent expected goals for at 5-on-5 compared to Seattle’s 24th-ranked 47.27 percent rate. Kraken G Philipp Grubauer is coming off a Vezina Trophy nomination with the Colorado Avalanche in 2020-21, but he has just a .883 save percentage and 3.29 goals against average through six games. Wild G Cam Talbot and his .906 SV%, and 2.55 GAA should get more than enough support for a win inside 60 minutes.

This is a much better value than Minnesota’s -115 odds to win outright.

Lightning Over 3.5 goals (-140 at BetMGM) - Gilbert

The Lightning are -300 favorites against the Coyotes, yet they’re only -140 to score four goals. Tampa Bay hasn’t scored a ton in the early going, but its coming off a 5-1 road win over the Penguins on Tuesday. It helps that the Lightning are playing the Coyotes, who've allowed 30 goals through six games. This is a good line for the Lightning team total, especially if you were already considering betting on the big favorites.

Lightning Over 6.5 goals (+650 at DraftKings) - Johnson

The Lightning awoke from their collective slumber with a 5-1 win over the Penguins on Tuesday night and will now try to do something they have yet to do this season – win consistently. Thursday's game should be a cakewalk over the winless Coyotes which brings us to this prop bet.

The Coyotes have an atrocious defense, with 5.00 goals allowed per game. They're also extinguishing just 35.71 percent of their opponents’ power-play opportunities. Unsurprisingly, both rates make them dead last in the league. The Lightning have more than enough firepower to make this a blowout, so we will go over 6.5 goals (+650) and get more than a 6-1 return on our investment.

Flames-Penguins both to score, Calgary to win in regulation (+175 at Caesars) - Jordan

Calgary is a slight underdog in Pittsburgh on Thursday, but should it be? The Flames are on a four-game winning streak, all on the road, and they scored at least three goals in each victory. Pittsburgh hasn’t been shut out through six games and won’t be here, but I think the Pens are set up to lose with backup G Casey DeSmith in net and with top players C Sidney Crosby (wrist), C Evgeni Malkin (knee), C Jeff Carter (illness), and D Kris Letang (illness) all out.

Top Expert Player Prop Picks

Killorn Over 0.5 power-play points (+270 at DraftKings) - McLaren

Killorn has four goals and six points through seven games while averaging 19:38 of ice time per game. None of those points have come via the power play, even though he skates alongside C Brayden Point on the top unit. The Coyotes are last in the NHL with an appalling 35.71 percent penalty kill (5-for-14). They’ll also be starting G Ivan Prosvetov for the first time this season. He allowed nine goals on 51 shots over three games in the 2020-21 campaign.

Tarasenko Over 2.5 shots on goal (-140 at BetMGM) - Gilbert

The St. Louis Blues winger has been shooting the puck early and often this season and the Russian forward already has 26 shots on goal through five games, for an average of 5.2 per game. He had at least four shots on goal in every game, including in the season opener against the Colorado Avalanche. The Blues play the Avs again Thursday, and Colorado is allowing the eighth-most shots on goal per game at 33.5. The Blues will put up shots and Tarasenko will get his fair share. This over 2.5 line is a gift.

Stamkos to score first (+800 at DraftKings) - Johnson

Stamkos has been on an early-season tear, with four goals and six assists through seven games. However, the 31-year-old has been held scoreless over the last two games. Let’s watch him end the slide Thursday and tally the opening goal while drawing first blood for what will be a Lightning strike throughout the game. Bet Stamkos (+800) to score first and cash that ticket!

Aho Over 2.5 shots on goal (-125 at Caesars) - Jordan

The Carolina Hurricanes are unbeaten and rested, and they host a Boston Bruins team playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road after losing 4-1 to the Florida Panthers on Wednesday. Thus, I expect the Boston defense to be a little weak in front of G Jeremy Swayman, who was just blistered for five goals by the Philadelphia Flyers in his previous start. Aho topped 2.5 shots in three of five games.

It might also be worth playing Aho Over 0.5 points, but that’s -170.