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Tyler Seguin passes the puck during the first period in Game 4 of second-round series between the Dallas Stars and Colorado Avalanche, as Gary Pearson explores the best prop bets for today's Game 5.
Tyler Seguin passes the puck during the first period in Game 4 of the Second Round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Ball Arena on May 13, 2024 in Denver, Colorado. Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images via AFP

The Colorado Avalanche were woeful in Games 3 and 4 and are on the verge of elimination as they face a must-win in Game 5 against the Dallas Stars on Wednesday. Here's Gary Pearson's Avalanche-Stars predictions and props based on the best NHL odds

The Colorado Avalanche (50-25-7) were dealt a massive blow hours before Game 4 when they were informed of Valeri Nichushkin's six-month suspension. He was placed into Stage 3 of the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program, and the news had a detrimental impact on the Avs' on-ice product, culminating in the disastrous and listless 5-1 setback. 

The Dallas Stars have been outstanding at both ends of the ice and are fully deserving of their 3-1 in the series as they make final preparations for Wednesday's Game 5 at American Airlines Center in Dallas. The puck drops at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The Stars have been unstoppable on the road during the postseason, clinching victories in both games in Colorado while outscoring the Avalanche 9-2. With this momentum behind them, they emerge as the clear favorites across our best sports betting sites to clinch the series on Wednesday, and they're among the top contenders in the Stanley Cup odds race.

Here are our best Avalanche vs. Stars predictions and NHL picks (odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Avalanche vs. Stars Game 5 expert picks

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Avalanche vs. Stars predictions for Wednesday

Miro Heiskanen Over 2.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

If you didn't already know, Heiskanen is a stud who will almost assuredly be a part of the Norris Trophy conversation in years to come. The 24-year-old is an elite puck-moving defenseman who knows precisely when to jump into the play.

He's also the Stars' most dangerous pivot on the power play. Heiskanen has at least three shots in eight of 11 playoff contests, including three of four against the Avalanche. 

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He's averaging 2.64 shots per game in the playoffs and has three goals in four games versus the Avalanche. Hitting the Over in six of the last seven games is only part of this prop bet's allure. The other appealing aspect is the +122 odds offered by FanDuel, which has an implied probability of 45.05%. A winning $10 wager pays a profit of $12.20. 

Best odds: +122 via FanDuel

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Tyler Seguin Over 0.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Seguin doesn't just dial back the clock against the Avalanche; he also grows a foot taller and seemingly packs on about 20 pounds of muscle.

He has been an absolute beast against Colorado, scoring nine goals in his last seven games, including three in this series. He has at least one point in three of the four games and 10 points in the previous seven contests against the Central Division foes. 

At -105, DraftKings has the best value. The -105 odds imply a probability of 51.22%, and a $10 bet will pay a profit of $9.52 if the wager hits. 

Best odds: -105 via DraftKings

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Under 6.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐

Backing the Under in games involving the high-octane Avalanche is never a decision taken lightly. However, the Stars have found their defensive groove in this series, allowing only two goals in Colorado for Games 3 and 4.

Aside from Game 1 against the Avs, the Stars haven't allowed more than three goals since Game 1 against the Vegas Golden Knights. In addition, the Avalanche lost Nichushkin prior to Game 4. Nichushkin had nine goals, tied with Zach Hyman atop the goal-scoring chart.

There's no question the Avs will try to band together in his absence and rebound after a woeful Game 4 performance. However, the Stars, particularly in a potential series-clinching game, should be able to go into their effective lockdown mode and prevent Colorado from exploding offensively.

Best odds: -120 via bet365

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Avalanche vs. Stars Game 5 info & odds

  • When: Wednesday, May 15
  • Puck drop: 8 p.m. ET
  • Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas
  • How to watch: ESPN, Sportsnet
  • Favorite: Stars (-140 via FanDuel)

Avalanche-Stars predictions made Tuesday at 11 a.m. ET.

Here are our best NHL betting sites:

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