Upset Special: Top 3 NFL Underdog Picks of Week 14

You’ll need to take a long shot in order to cash more than two underdog picks in Week 14. I like one team to take it home against a waffling opponent, while I’m seeing value on two very good teams that could easily be favored.

There’s nothing more thrilling than bypassing the points offered to you every week on an undervalued team and heading straight for the moneyline.

With great risk comes great reward, and we will seek out those big paydays on a weekly basis with our top NFL underdog picks.

Here’s a look at my top three NFL underdog picks for Week 14 (odds via BetMGM):

Underdog Picks Week 14

San Francisco 49ers (+100) vs. Cincinnati BengalsNew Orleans Saints vs. New York Jets (+200)Los Angeles Rams (+125) vs. Arizona Cardinals

SEE ALSO: NFL Offensive Player of the Year Picks

Week 14 Underdog Picks and Predictions

49ers (+100)

This is a situation where I simply don’t understand the line. San Francisco is fresh off a loss to the Seattle Seahawks; however, the 49ers opened with a 17-7 lead and outgained Seattle 365 yards to 327. On top of that, the 49ers have demons to exorcise and can’t ever seem to win in Seattle.

This should be a return to normalcy against a Bengals team that got punched in the mouth by a well-oiled Los Angeles Chargers offense on Sunday. This defense can no longer be considered good after some putrid recent showings. Cincinnati has also had some issues with tight ends lately, giving up 251 yards and three touchdowns over the last four games.

San Francisco ranks fourth in total offensive DVOA and is a much better team than Cincinnati. The Niners should continue to expose this Bengals defense, which has not brought it lately. Especially with tight end George Kittle coming off a nine-catch, 181-yard performance against the Seahawks.

Jets (+200)

I’m putting the Jets in here again because aside from the 49ers and Rams, there are only five games with a spread within four points. Out of those, this is the matchup I like most to produce an underdog winner.

New York is suspiciously close against New Orleans, and that’s likely because it once again had a great offensive showing against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 13. QB Zach Wilson played his second-best game of the year by quarterback rating, and the defense continued to be a liability — though the officials had a rough day, even according to Eagles supporters.

This is a good matchup for a third straight week for the Jets defense, considering how lost the Saints are on offense. The confidence can start to build early here, which could help New York get into position for a win. It remains unlikely, but this is called “Upset Special” for a reason!

Rams (+134)

This is a great buy-low spot on a team that has lost the support of just about everyone. If you watched last week, QB Matthew Stafford looked to be over his elbow issues. He was throwing like himself again, and the Rams’ passing attack continued to look strong even without receiver Robert Woods.

Arizona’s the talk of the league right now after getting QB Kyler Murray and receiver DeAndre Hopkins back — and I fully believe this is a Super Bowl contender. With that said, L.A. has had the Cardinals’ number for years, and it grades out as a team that should have no issues competing on Sunday.

Los Angeles is sixth in defensive DVOA. It will be an interesting matchup against an Arizona team that has fallen to 12th in offensive DVOA. Though some of that had to do with the Murray injury, it’s important to remember the Cardinals are playing without RB Chase Edmonds. They're also probably a little overvalued after beating up on the poor Chicago Bears.

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Underdog Picks made on 12/07/2021 at 4:27 p.m. ET.