Coming out of Week 13 the odds are tighter than ever at the top of the NFL futures markets. We make our picks among the favorites and long shots to be the Offensive Player of the Year.
Los Angeles Rams WR Cooper Kupp or Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor? That has been the question for several weeks surrounding th Offensive Player of the Year market. Are we ignoring some potential long shots in our evaluation of the market?
We look deeper into the co-favorites and some potential value picks in the Offensive Player of the Year futures market.
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Odds
NFL Offensive Player of the Year Picks
Favorites: Cooper Kupp vs. Jonathan Taylor
Kupp continues to lead every major statistical category for receivers. He is first in yards (1,366), touchdowns (11), and receptions (100).
He has also been incredibly consistent with his production for the Rams this season. Through 12 games, Kupp has only one game with fewer than 92 receiving yards.
At his current pace, he would finish just short of Calvin Johnson’s receiving yards record and Michael Thomas’s single-season receptions record.
Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,348) and rushing touchdowns (16). He is also the top-graded running back on Pro Football Focus. Taylor has been the most dominant running back this season and it has not been close.
The Offensive Player of the Year award has been won by only two receivers in the last 27 years. Thomas in 2019 and Jerry Rice in 1993. Over those 27 years, a running back has taken home the award 16 times.
It has been a close race between Kupp and Taylor for several weeks now but as Week 13 wraps up, I lean to Taylor.
SEE ALSO: NFL MVP Stock Report
Long shot: Justin Jefferson
Jefferson is second in the NFL in receiving yards with 1,209, and he has been on a tear over the last month. He is averaging 144 receiving yards per game over the Minnesota Vikings' last four contests, and he has very favorable matchups over his remaining 5 games.
Kupp has been long regarded as the favorite for this award, but Jefferson continues to close the gap on him for receiving yards. The Vikings lost Adam Thielen to a high ankle sprain in their game on Sunday against the Detroit Lions. Missed games for Thielen would result in more targets for the red-hot Jefferson, especially in the red zone.
If Jefferson can overtake Kupp for the league lead in receiving yards, he will have a strong resume for the Offensive Player of the Year award.
Long shot: Tom Brady
Brady leads the NFL in passing touchdowns (34) and passing yards (3,771). He is also the top-graded QB on Pro Football Focus.
After his Week 13 performance against the Atlanta Falcons, his MVP odds were adjusted from +350 to +175. However, his Offensive Player of the Year odds did not change with the performance. He was +4000 at DraftKings heading into Week 13 and is still +4000. It is very likely that a lot of the Brady money is being wagered on him to win MVP instead of Offensive Player of the Year.
In 2007 and 2010, Brady won the Offensive Player of the Year and the MVP in the same season. He has tough competition for the award this season but +4000 is tremendous value for a player who is currently +175 to be crowned the MVP.