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Tua Tagovailoa vs. Lamar Jackson NFL Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions

Philip Wood

Last Updated: December 31, 2023 11:43 AM EST • 3 min 25 sec read.

Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins drops back to pass as we look at the top Bills vs. Dolphins bonus code.
Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins drops back to pass during a game against the Dallas Cowboys at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida. Stacy Revere/Getty Images/AFP.

The Baltimore Ravens play host to the Miami Dolphins as we make our best Tua Tagovailoa vs. Lamar Jackson NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds at the top NFL prop betting sites.

Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has accumulated 4,214 passing yards and 26 touchdowns through the air in 2023. He hasn't thrown an interception in four weeks, and now Tagovailoa faces a challenging task against a defense that intercepted Brock Purdy four times in Week 16.

Thanks to 786 rushing yards, Baltimore Ravens signal-caller Lamar Jackson has accounted for over 4,000 yards. He’s tossed 19 touchdowns and added five more on the ground, despite failing to notch a rushing touchdown in eight weeks.

In addition to our NFL Week 17 predictions, our Dolphins vs. Ravens prediction, and our Dolphins vs. Ravens player props, here are our best Tua Tagovailoa vs. Lamar Jackson NFL player prop predictions for the Miami Dolphins vs. Baltimore Ravens 17 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Tua Tagovailoa vs. Lamar Jackson NFL player prop predictions for Week 17

Tua Tagovailoa vs. Lamar Jackson player props

Lamar Jackson Under 231.5 passing yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Jackson had one of his best passing days of the season last week against the San Francisco 49ers. He finished with 252 yards and two touchdowns while completing more than 65% of his passes. Yet, despite the numbers, he’s thrown for more than 230 yards just six times this season.

The Dolphins rank 10th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. Last week, they held Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott to 253 yards. While Jackson can explode against anyone, as he proved last week, the Dolphins’ defense is playing well right now. The secondary is healthy, and because the Ravens’ offense is a run-first unit, we don’t expect Jackson to throw for more than his season average of 223.8 yards on Sunday.

The price and total are all over the place for this prop. FanDuel has the total listed at 226.5 and is asking -114 for the Under. bet365 is offering better value with a price of -110 for under 229.5. DraftKings and Caesars are each asking -130 or greater for under 231.5. Therefore, wager at BetMGM, a sportsbook asking a fair price for a high number.

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Tua Tagovailoa Over 34.5 pass attempts (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The Ravens’ defense is good enough to prevent Tagovailoa from having a huge game. However, they’re not so good that we’d blindly take his passing yards or touchdowns under in this game. Instead, the best player prop for Tagovailoa in this game is for him to attempt more than 34 passes.

Tagovailoa has attempted more than 34 passes just twice in his last seven games. For all of the NFL prop betting sites to have his total set at 34.5, it signals that oddsmakers are pretty confident in Tua playing from behind in this game.

What’s great about this prop is that Tagovailoa can hit this whether he has success against the Ravens’ defense or not. If the Ravens shut him down, he’ll still be throwing late into the fourth quarter. If the Dolphins jump out to an early lead, it will likely be because of the passing attack. Without knowing exactly what Tua will be able to accomplish against the Ravens, this is the safest bet of the game at the best sportsbooks.

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Lamar Jackson Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-146 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Jackson has yet to throw multiple touchdown passes in consecutive games this season. Last week, he threw for two touchdowns against the 49ers, which means this week he’s due to throw for one or fewer touchdowns.

The Ravens are tied for the second-most rushing touchdowns in the league. When they get into the red zone, they don’t mess around, as they hand the ball to Gus Edwards and let him find the end zone. While the Dolphins are allowing nearly 1.5 passing touchdowns per game this season, they’re also allowing nearly one rushing touchdown per contest. Based on how the Ravens have played this season, they’ll likely take advantage of the latter.

The price for this Under is high.  FanDuel is offering the best price at -146. The rest of the NFL prop betting sites have the price set at -155 or worse, which is too expensive.

Tua Tagovailoa vs. Lamar Jackson player prop picks made 12/30/2023 at 12:13 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Philip Wood
Phil is a Sports Betting Analyst for Sportsbook Review and BettingPros.com, specializing in NFL and college football. He previously covered college football and college basketball for CanesInsight.com, where he also hosted the College Football Pick 'Em podcast. Phil is always looking for value, especially on lines that just seem too good to be true. His belief is if a line doesn't make sense, just assume that Vegas knows something you don't. An alumnus of The U, Phil always holds out hope that the next head coach will be the one who turns the football program around. Some would call him a frontrunner for his love of the Yankees and the Celtics, but he's also a diehard Detroit Lions fan and will never forgive the refs for the blown pass interference call against the Cowboys in 2015.