NFL Teaser Picks Week 17: Back Bengals in AFC Showdown
The Cincinnati Bengals and quarterback Joe Burrow are cruising along a seven-game winning streak, and they rank as one of our top Week 17 teaser NFL picks based on the best odds.
A teaser allows bettors to move multiple spreads and/or totals above and below key numbers and ranges for an increased vig. They’re a popular wager for both recreational and professional bettors, and you can find additional information and strategies in our teaser betting primer.
Check out our NFL Week 17 odds and lines analysis and our against-the-spread power rankings.
Here are our NFL teaser picks for Week 17 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Week 17 NFL ATS Teaser Picks
Favorite to tease down: Chargers (-6.5 vs. Rams)
The Los Angeles Chargers are trending in the right direction with three consecutive wins, and it’s been the defense leading the way with the lowest EPA per play allowed and fifth-best DVOA per Football Outsiders. In fact, the trend has even longer legs with the Bolts ranking 10th and seventh, respectively, in the two metrics following their Week 8 bye.
I also value the Chargers having their top-two wide receivers, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, on the field for all three contests. At least one of the oft-injured duo had missed nine of the previous 12 games.
Additionally, this line is an overreaction to the Los Angeles Rams' 51-14 shellacking of the Denver Broncos in a standalone game on Christmas Day. Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert isn’t going to throw four interceptions, and the Rams aren’t going to rack up six sacks.
A six-point teaser moves this game to a pick’em, and the Chargers were trading as high as -8.5 favorites in look-ahead markets.
Underdog to tease up: Bengals (+1.5 vs. Bills)
The Buffalo Bills are on an active 3-6 stretch against the spread, and a six-point teaser moves the Bengals to +7.5 home underdogs. Most importantly, adding the hook moves the line entirely above the key number of 7.
Cincinnati enters on a seven-game winning stretch, and the Bengals haven’t lost at Paycor Stadium since Week 1. Burrow has been incredible leading the offense, too. He ranks fifth in adjusted EPA per play, and Cincy ranks first in offensive DVOA during the heater.
It’s obviously difficult to poke holes in the 12-3 Bills, and Buffalo trading as the consensus favorite to win Super Bowl LVII is warranted. Still, the Bengals have a legitimate shot to win outright, and I’m anticipating this to finish as a one-possession game.
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Week 17 NFL O/U Teaser Picks
Total to tease down: Vikings-Packers (46.5)
The Minnesota Vikings have a 10-5 Over/Under record this season, and the total went over the number in each of their past five games. They rank seventh in points per game (25.2) and have surrendered the fifth-most (24.9). I’m also encouraged by the recent form of the Green Bay Packers’ offense.
Green Bay has an active 4-2 O/U record and ranks third in offensive DVOA during the stretch. Similar to their division rivals, the Packers haven’t packed much defensive punch with a 24th-ranked defensive DVOA across their past six games.
This total can be teased through the key range of 43-44, and there have been at least 41 points in each of the Vikings’ past seven games, and five of the past seven contests involving the Packers.
Total to tease up: Bears-Lions (51.5)
With this spread already above the key number of 51, I’m happy to boost it all the way into the key range of 57-58. Additionally, this is also the highest Over/Under total of the season for the Chicago Bears. This total was trading two points lower at 49.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook in look-ahead markets.
The Detroit Lions topped the Bears 31-30 in Week 10, but I’m expecting the division rivals to play a lower-scoring game on Sunday. Chicago has averaged just 15.5 points while ranking 21st in offensive DVOA across its past four games. The Bears were also without their top-three wide receivers during Saturday’s 35-13 loss to the Bills.
I’m expecting Detroit to hold the banged-up and sputtering Chicago offense in check, which will keep this inflated total out of reach. Detroit is still in the playoff hunt, and I’d be surprised if it didn’t play a tidier game at Ford Field following a 37-23 loss to the Carolina Panthers last week.
Teaser picks made on 12/27/2022 at 10:45 a.m. ET.
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