NFL Odds, Lines Week 17: Derek Carr Benched
It's expected that quarterback changes and injuries will be the biggest stories in the NFL this week. These are already affecting spreads and totals in multiple games. Here’s our analysis of the NFL odds and lines for Week 17.
There has been a whirlwind of news in Week 17 that has impacted the betting lines. Mike White has returned to the New York Jets and Derrick Henry is expected to miss Thursday Night Football for the Tennessee Titans.
Also, did we forget to mention that Lamar Jackson is likely to miss another week, that Derek Carr has been benched, that Nathaniel Hackett has been fired, and that Carson Wentz is once again the starter for the Washington Commanders?
At this point, this is all the information we have. As of Thursday afternoon, we don't know for sure who will be the Philadelphia Eagles' starting quarterback in Week 17.
Here are the NFL spread and Over/Under lines for Week 17, and how we think they'll move throughout the week (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook, PointsBet, and Caesars Sportsbook).
Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top NFL picks for Week 17!
NFL Week 17 Odds and Lines: Sunday
Cardinals vs. Falcons
Spread: Falcons -3.5
Initially, the Atlanta Falcons laying 3.5 points with rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder starting might seem high. However, I expect this line to move in favor of the Falcons and make them bigger favorites by Sunday afternoon. It's possible that the Arizona Cardinals will draw more money than we're expecting from the public following their overtime loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the direction of this spread won't be determined by that.
Total: 42
The total opened at 40 and has increased to 42. After clearing the concussion protocol, Cardinals quarterback Colt McCoy will be able to return in Week 17, helping the total to rise.
Bears vs. Lions Picks
Spread: Lions -6
The Detroit Lions had a great opportunity to improve their playoff chances in Week 16, but instead, they were blown out by the Carolina Panthers. We've seen this spread come down 0.5 points to Lions -6. I anticipate that this line will return closer to the look-ahead line of Lions -6.5 as the week progresses.
Total: 52
The total has already moved two and a half points toward the Over from 49.5 to 52. With the Lions allowing 320 rushing yards to the Panthers, the market will be confident that the Chicago Bears offense will be able to move the ball on the ground.
Broncos vs. Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -12.5
At this point in the season, no one in their right mind would be willing to risk any money on the Denver Broncos. I'm not sure if the sportsbooks will be able to make this spread high enough. The numbers indicate there's value in backing the Broncos as 12.5-point underdogs, but how can you handicap a team that might quit? It'll be interesting to see how this spread changes throughout the week.
Total: 45
Russell Wilson was benched by the Broncos on Sunday, but interim head coach Jerry Rosburg has stated that Wilson will start in Week 17. Rosburg's announcement caused the total to move from 43.5 to 45.
Dolphins vs. Patriots Picks
Spread: Patriots -3
Tua Tagovailoa's MVP talk seems like it was a lifetime ago, and the Miami Dolphins are at risk of missing the playoffs. The Dolphins play the New England Patriots in Week 17 with massive playoff implications, and the Dolphins opened as 1-point favorites. With Tagovailoa back in the concussion protocol, the line has flipped from Dolphins -1 to Patriots -3.
Total: 41.5
For a short period of time early in the week, the total moved to 44, but was then lowered back to 43.5. When it was announced that Tagovailoa had suffered another concussion, the total dropped to 41.5.
Colts vs. Giants
Spread: Giants -6
On Monday Night Football, the Indianapolis Colts looked awful against the Los Angeles Chargers, which caused significant movement in this line. Since opening at -3, the New York Giants have been bet up to -6. There won't be much buyback on the Colts, and I think the Giants will go off as 6-point favorites.
Total: 38.5
After everyone saw the Colts offense with Nick Foles at quarterback, the total moved toward the Under. In the wake of the Colts' performance on Monday Night Football, the total has dropped by two points from 40.5 to 38.5.
Saints vs. Eagles Picks
Spread: Eagles -5.5
Minshew performed admirably as a stand-in for the injured Jalen Hurts against the Cowboys last week, but we should see this line move if Minshew is named the starter again. The Eagles should be closer to 4-point favorites than 5.5-point favorites with Minshew at quarterback.
Total: 43
At several sportsbooks, the total opened at 43.5 but has since been bet down to 43. Whichever quarterback the Eagles name as their starter in Week 17 will have an impact on this total.
Panthers vs. Buccaneers Picks
Spread: Buccaneers -3
In the NFC South, this is an important game for the Panthers and Buccaneers, as a win will give the Panthers sole possession of first place with one game remaining. The look-ahead line was Buccaneers -7, so the change from that to Buccaneers -3 represents a major swing.
Total: 40.5
Imagine if I told you at the beginning of the season that we're more concerned about the Buccaneers' offense not scoring many points than the Panthers'. Sam Darnold and the Panthers' rushing attack scored 37 points against the Lions in Week 16, while the Buccaneers' offense struggled once again under Tom Brady. The Bucs were able to score only three points against the Panthers in Week 7.
Browns vs. Commanders
Spread: Commanders -2
Earlier in the week, we didn't know who would start at quarterback for the Commanders, but this has now been clarified with Wentz being named the starter. Regardless of who was named the starter, I didn't think it would have an impact on the spread all that much, and it didn't. The line opened at Commanders -2.5 and has since dropped to Commanders -2.
Total: 40.5
There has been a lot of fluctuation in this total since it opened at 40.5. It's been as high as 41.5 and as low as 39.5, and it just continues to move through these numbers. I believe this total will eventually move permanently to the Over and close around 41.5.
Jaguars vs. Texans Picks
Spread: Jaguars -4
The Jacksonville Jaguars have taken us on a roller coaster this season, and it appears that they're once again a good football team. The Jaguars have struggled against the Houston Texans in the past, and Houston won the previous meeting this season. The look-ahead line was Jaguars -6, but with the Texans showing life down the stretch, the line has been moved to Jaguars -4.
Total: 43.5
There's been a change in the total from 46.5 to 43.5, which is an interesting move considering how well Trevor Lawrence has been playing, as well as the Jaguars' 28th ranked defense by DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. Davis Mills is not a great quarterback, but he should be able to move the ball against a terrible Jaguars pass defense.
49ers vs. Raiders Picks
Spread: 49ers -10
Running back Josh Jacobs had some strong words for the Las Vegas Raiders organization following the loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16. As if that wasn't enough, wide receiver Davante Adams liked tweets about getting the ball more, and the Raiders announced that Derek Carr would be benched for the remainder of the season. This has resulted in the 49ers moving from 5-point favorites to -10.
Total: 41.5
The total opened at 43.5 and reached 44.5, but fell to 41.5 once it was announced that Carr would be moving to the bench and Jarrett Stidham would start at quarterback.
Jets vs. Seahawks
Spread: Jets -1.5
The Jets were trading as 1-point favorites, but once Adam Schefter announced that White has been cleared for contact and is expected to start against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 17, the line moved to Jets -2. Even with White starting at quarterback, I would be surprised if the Jets became more than 2-point favorites.
Total: 42.5
After White was announced as the starting quarterback, the total increased from 43 to 43.5. The total initially surged to the Over, but has since fallen to 42.5. It's likely that this total will continue to move to the Under and close at 41.5.
Vikings vs. Packers Picks
Spread: Packers -3
Since opening as 3.5-point favorites, the Green Bay Packers have been bet down to -3. As the Minnesota Vikings boast a 12-3 record and are catching three points this week, they should be a very popular team with the public. Sharp money is likely to hold off on backing the Packers in the hope that this line will move to Packers -2.5.
Total: 48
Football Outsiders ranks the Vikings' pass defense 27th by DVOA and they just allowed Daniel Jones to throw for 334 yards against them in Week 16. As Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offense heat up, we should see support for the Over at 48 and it should increase to 49.
Rams vs. Chargers Picks
Spread: Chargers -6.5
While it's a home game for the Chargers, there will be no home-field advantage as they take on the Rams. As a matter of fact, it's unclear who will be attending this game since away fans typically account for more than half of the crowd. The Chargers were trading at -8.5 on the look-ahead line but are now down to -6.5 as the Rams have found new life with Baker Mayfield at the helm of the offense.
Total: 42.5
At the moment, we're seeing anywhere from 41.5 to 43 available in the market, however, we are expected to have a more definitive number as we approach the weekend. Following the Chargers' victory on Monday Night Football, this line is still settling and I expect it to close around 44.
Steelers vs. Ravens
Spread: Ravens -2.5
Will Lamar Jackson start for the Baltimore Ravens against the Pittsburgh Steelers? Since this game is flexed into a primetime slot on Sunday Night Football, the sportsbooks are being cautious in how they price the game. With Jackson playing, I would make the Ravens 5-point favorites over the Steelers. Throughout the week, the Ravens have moved from -3.5 to -2.5, indicating that backup Tyler Huntley will once again start at quarterback.
Total: 35
Originally, the look-ahead total was 42, but it's currently trading at 35, which suggests that Jackson is unlikely to play in Week 17. As of Thursday afternoon, the total is as low as 34.5 at BetMGM, but I believe the line will begin to move toward the Over once some buyback occurs on the Over.
NFL Week 17 Odds and Lines: Monday
Bills vs. Bengals
Spread: Bills -1
The Cincinnati Bengals have won seven games in a row, but were dealt a major injury blow in Week 16 when it was announced that starting left tackle La'el Collins had torn his ACL. Could there be an Andrew Whitworth reunion in Cincinnati? Even with Collins' injury, I believe this game will close as a pick'em on Monday Night Football.
Total: 49.5
Despite the fact that both teams have elite quarterbacks in Josh Allen and Joe Burrow, as well as weapons on the outside in Stefon Diggs and Ja'Marr Chase, it's important to note that both teams also possess excellent defenses. It's likely that this total will fluctuate between 49.5 and 50.5 throughout the week.
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