NFL Teaser Picks Week 14: Broncos to Bear Brunt of Chiefs’ Frustrations
Our NFL Week 14 teasers picks feature the Kansas City Chiefs and the New York Jets.
Teasers enable bettors to move multiple spread and/or totals above or below key numbers and ranges for an increased vig. They’re popular among professional and recreational bettors, and our teaser betting primer offers additional information and strategies.
Check out our NFL Week 14 odds and lines analysis and our against-the-spread power rankings.
Here are our NFL teaser picks for Week 14 (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).
Week 14 NFL ATS Teaser Picks
Favorite to tease down: Chiefs (-9)
A six-point teaser moves this spread through the key numbers of 4 and 7, and I have the Chiefs aggressively power ranked as an 11-point favorite. I also value the schedule spot here with the Chiefs set to rebound following a disappointing 27-24 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13.
Additionally, the Denver Broncos rank 30th in pass defense DVOA per Football Outsiders during their current four-game losing streak. If the Broncos can’t slow down Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City will quickly pull away. KC paces the NFL in points per game, while Denver ranks 32nd.
This also represents a huge step up in class for the Denver defense. The Broncos have faced the third-easiest schedule of opposing offenses by DVOA, and the Chiefs lead the NFL in EPA per play, offensive DVOA and offense grade per Pro Football Focus.
Underdog to tease up: Jets (+9.5)
While this isn’t a conventional teaser recommendation, boosting the Jets up through multiple key numbers to a +15.5 head start is a lot of points for a divisional matchup. And this line might be a tad disrespectful to the Jets, with Gang Green ranking fifth in defensive DVOA and first in defense grade per PFF.
I have the Buffalo Bills power ranked as a -7.5 favorite, and they’ve failed to cover the number in four of their past six games. This is also the lowest Over/Under total in a Buffalo game this season, and the lower the total, the more valuable the points are. Additionally, the Jets’ 20-17 win over the Bills in Week 9 was the lowest combined point total in a Buffalo game this year.
New York quarterback Mike White has also provided a measurable upgrade to the offense the past two weeks. He’s averaged 8.0 yards per attempt and recorded a 15.6 DVOA. For comparison, Zach Wilson posted 6.8 and -12.4 marks, respectively, across his seven starts.
I’m expecting the Jets to make this a competitive game and hang with the Bills for 60 minutes on Sunday.
Week 14 NFL O/U Teaser Picks
Total to tease down: Ravens-Steelers (36.5)
This is definitely a hold-your-nose teaser leg. The Baltimore Ravens will turn to backup quarterback Tyler Huntley behind center with starter Lamar Jackson (knee) out for the foreseeable future, and this total has already seen a considerable drop from the 41 that was available in look-ahead markets.
While I don’t consider the line movement an egregious overreaction, it does present an opportunity to use a six-point teaser to move the number 10.5 points below the noted look-ahead total. The lower the total, the more valuable points are, too.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have shown improvement on offense with an average of 23.4 points per contest and boast the 14th-ranked offensive DVOA through four games following the Week 9 bye. Additionally, this is Huntley’s third season with the Ravens, and he’ll be making his fifth career start. I don’t anticipate the moment being too big for him.
I’m also encouraged that the 36.5 total is the lowest of the season for both teams, and the betting action is now balanced based on our matchup page for the Ravens-Steelers game. More specifically, there's been buyback on the Over since oddsmakers dropped the total from the opening 38.5 number.
Total to tease up: Vikings-Lions (53.5)
There’s been considerable betting support for the Over in this game, and the total has climbed well above the look-ahead number of 51. As a result, teasing this game up through the key ranges of 54-55 and 57-58 to 59.5 provides an 8.5-point gap from where bookmakers pegged this total ahead of Week 13.
The Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions have each played to the Over in three of their past four respective games, so I’m viewing this as an inflated total to begin with (especially with this being the second meeting between the division rivals).
I’m also encouraged by the improved play of the Detroit defense during its active 4-1 run. The Lions rank sixth in defensive DVOA and 10th in EPA allowed per dropback while surrendering an average of just 19.8 points per game. Detroit ranked last in both metrics while allowing an average of 31.2 points through its first seven games.
It’ll only take a few time-consuming drives resulting in field goals – or worse – to put this total out of reach. I’m expecting a similar score to the Week 3 meeting, a 28-24 Minnesota victory.
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