NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Survivor Strategies & Safest Pick for NFL Week 4

My NFL survivor picks were on the money last week, correctly identifying the Chiefs (safest), Lions (best), and Giants (strategy) as the top three picks in Week 3, while our pick to avoid (Packers) abruptly lost on Thursday night.

An early glance at the Week 4 lines suggests this will be a tough slate for survivor pool contestants to navigate, as more than half of the 16 games have spreads of three or fewer points. Thus, one can either take the safe route with one clear-cut favorite on the board, or take advantage of a quarterback injury and back a struggling 1-2 team.

🎯 Best NFL survivor pool picks: Week 4

See the latest NFL odds and our experts' NFL picks for every game this season.

🐦‍⬛ Safest NFL survivor pick: Ravens (88.2%) over Titans

Check out all of our NFL analysis and expert predictions for every game in Week 4.

Baltimore got into a track meet in Rio against Dallas last week, a game that saw a combined 50 first downs and 793 total yards. But for all of the Ravens’ defensive struggles (six missed tackles in each of the first two games, 13 last week), I don’t expect a Titans offense that mustered just seven points (the fewest the Giants allowed in a game since Week 12, 2023) to keep up.

The other scary thing for the Titans in this contest is that they allowed Giants running back Cam Skattebo to generate a season-high 74 yards after contact (second-most of his career) and a 30% forced missed tackle rate (third-highest). How will that go over when trying to tackle the load that is Derrick Henry?

🟣 Best NFL survivor pick: Vikings (84.9%) over Dolphins

This is a matchup between a Miami team that has started 0-3 in consecutive seasons for the second time in team history (1968-69) and a Minnesota team that is off to its second 3-0 start in the last 10 seasons (2024, when it finished 14-3). The Vikings are also amid an eight-game regular-season winning streak dating back to last season, the second-longest streak under head coach Kevin O’Connell.

No, I don’t think the Dolphins are going 0-17, nor are the Vikings going 17-0. But Miami’s offense will also look a lot different after losing De’Von Achane to a torn ACL, after he finished fifth in rushing yards and had the most explosive runs (40) a season ago.

🧀 NFL survivor strategy pick: Packers (62.4%) over Buccaneers

I’m holding my nose and suggest Green Bay as a smart strategy pick in NFL survivor pools this week, even after its embarrassing 35-14 loss to Atlanta which snapped an NFL-long 13-game winning streak in home openers.

This wager is all about the injury to Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield, who is expected to miss two to four weeks with a dislocated thumb. That puts backup Jalon Daniels under center, a quarterback who has thrown just three career passes with one of them getting picked off. 

Green Bay wouldn’t be a confident survivor pick against any NFC North divisional opponents, and I wouldn’t want to wait until Week 15 when they host the Dolphins to take advantage of the Packers in a prime contrarian spot.

❌ NFL survivor pick to avoid: Bears (62.1%) over Jets

If one has the Bears available to use in survivor pools, I would question the need to force a pick on them this week when coming off a short week having played on Monday night, and with quarterback Caleb Williams not completely healthy. After all, Chicago is facing a Jets squad that had fellow NFC North squads Green Bay dead to rights before an overtime loss, and was tied with the Lions on the road with four minutes to play last week. 

Chicago’s schedule is daunting after having won the division last year, but a home game in the cold against a dome team in the Saints in Week 11 or a trip to Miami in Week 14 seem like much more prime spots to save the Bears for.

💵 Circa Survivor contest update entering Week 4

In yet another week one of the top two most popular plays in the Circa Sports survivor pool contest lost outright, as 1,111 entries were eliminated with Seattle's loss to Washington. Entering the Monday Night Football game between the Eagles and Bears, there were 2,252 total entries eliminated in Week 3, leaving 5,858 entries alive heading into Week 4. And for the third straight week, over 27% of the entire field was eliminated.