2022 Super Bowl Best Prop Bets - Last-Minute Picks to Find Value in Line Movement and Odds Changes

Betting odds and lines for the 2022 Super Bowl between the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals have been posted for nearly two weeks. Since good things come to those who wait, we look at the best last-minute Super Bowl prop bets to make.

There's projected to be more than $7.6 billion bet on Super Bowl 56 with legalized sports betting available to more states than ever before, and specifically in time for this event. Sportsbook Review has you covered for all of your Super Bowl picks and the biggest betting news surrounding the big game.

After two full weeks of prognostication and wagering, the odds and lines for the game itself between the Rams and Bengals are as sharp as can be. Prop bets are the best way to set yourself up for a winning day at this point. We offer our last-minute picks below (confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

SEE ALSO: Rams vs. Bengals Picks

Super Bowl Prop Bet Line Movements and Strategy

The sportsbooks proved to be sharper than the rest of us once again. Nearing the end of two weeks of action, the Rams are back to being 4-point favorites on the consensus line with 57% of the handle and 60% of the tickets on the Bengals. The Over/Under has settled at 48.5 after opening at 49, despite 65% of the cash and 64% of the tickets being on the Over.

Movement in the prop bet markets has been much more significant with money pouring in on marquee players. At BetMGM, Bengals QB Joe Burrow dropped from +2500 to be named Super Bowl MVP at opening earlier in the playoffs to +225 as of Saturday afternoon. He'd drawn 30% of the betting handle.

The projection for Bengals receiver Ja'Marr Chase's yards in Super Bowl 56 was dropped from 81.5 at opening to 78.5. This is despite 72% of the action at BetMGM being on the Over in this market. Tracking movement and zigging while the betting public zags is essential for giving yourself the best chance at a profitable Super Bowl experience.

Last-Minute Super Bowl Prop Picks

Ja'Marr Chase receiving yards: Under 80.5 (-115 via PointsBet)

Generally at this stage of flushing out my Super Bowl betting portfolio, I'm looking for plus-money returns. However, I'm not too proud to turn away from this gift from PointsBet. With most other legal books having dropped Chase's line to 78.5 yards, we can still get a little insurance at PointsBet.

He topped either line in eight of his 20 games across the regular season and playoffs. That includes two of his three postseason games. Both the public and sharps have been heavily backing the Over on any line, but the house has gone the other way by dropping the projection. This is an indication that the books either expect the Under to be the winning side, or they've received specific sharp money on the Under. Books will adjust lines based on bets from known sharps.

Game-level reasons for believing in the Under are Chase's expected matchup with top Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey, as well as all the mouths Burrow needs to feed. Yes, his former LSU connection has been his top target since Week 1, but the second-year quarterback won't need to force-feed the rookie wideout on Sunday. Receivers Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins, tight end C.J. Uzomah, and running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine will feature in the passing game as well.

SEE ALSO: Super Bowl Cross-Sport Props

Number of Rams players to record a rush attempt: Over 4.5 (+122 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

This line has risen by a full player but that's accompanied by a sizable boost in the odds for the Over. Let's go ahead and lock in Rams running backs Akers, Sony Michel, and the healthy Darrell Henderson Jr., as getting carries in the Super Bowl. QB Matthew Stafford is also likely to add to his 15 playoff carries. All we need is one other player.

Rams receivers Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson, and rookie running back Jake Funk all have carries this postseason. We can expect Funk's role to be fully converted to Henderson, but Rams head coach Sean McVay certainly won't be afraid to get his top play-makers the ball by any means possible. Now-injured receiver Robert Woods ranked fourth on the team with eight carries and third with 46 rushing yards in the regular season. Receiver carries have been a staple of this offense.

We also have a heightened chance of trick plays in the Super Bowl. Whether it be via fourth-down conversion attempts, fake punts or 2-point conversions, my money will be on McVay finding a fifth player to hand the ball.

SEE ALSO: 56 Super Bowl Prop Bets

Player to record first sack of game: Trey Hendrickson (+550 via BetMGM)

Hendrickson is the third most likely player to both record a sack at any time and to record the first sack of the Super Bowl. He trails more popular Rams pass-rushers Aaron Donald and Von Miller, but he led the trio by ranking fifth in the NFL with 14 sacks in the regular season.

Plenty has been made of Burrow being sacked nine times by the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round. However, he was taken down just once by the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship as the Bengals' well-criticized offensive line was able to adjust. We briefly touched on Stafford's newfound mobility, but it is Burrow who's a much greater threat when forced to run. Stafford was sacked twice in each of his last two games and 30 times across 17 regular-season contests.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1490709015780683776

Matthew Stafford to throw TD pass in third quarter (+140 via Caesars Sportsbook)

The third quarter of the Super Bowl is consistently set as the most likely to be the lowest-scoring frame. Teams come out of halftime having made adjustments from the first 30 minutes, and the halftime leader typically tries to run the clock. I don't expect that to be the case for the Rams.

They're 4-point favorites in Super Bowl 56 and 3-point favorites on the first-half line. However, they nearly blew a big lead against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the Divisional Round. They also started slowly against the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship. I'd expect them to stay on the attack after the break.

Stafford is +140 to throw a touchdown in both the first and third quarters; however, he's -120 to do it in the second and -130 in the fourth. He's also heavily juiced to top 1.5 passing touchdowns in the game with -210 odds on the Over at Caesars. The 13-year vet is also the favorite to be the MVP of his first Super Bowl appearance. This prop gets us involved on the Over 48.5 total points that's being so heavily backed by the masses. Stafford's right arm will be a big part of that.

SEE ALSO: Super Bowl Halftime Show Prop Bets

Where to Bet on Super Bowl Prop Bets

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks for odds boosts:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesarsDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com's community forums and betting tools.