2024 NFL Rookie Passing Leader Odds, Predictions: Fade Favorite Caleb Williams

Chicago Bears QB Caleb Williams is the early favorite by the 2024 NFL rookie passing leader odds from our best NFL betting sites, though he isn't the only player worth betting.

To nobody's surprise, former USC quarterback Caleb Williams heard his name first in last Thursday's NFL draft. And our best sports betting sites unsurprisingly have the No. 1 pick atop the early odds to lead all rookies in passing yards, too.

The Chicago Bears' new franchise quarterback is listed as the clear betting favorite (+130) across our best sportsbooks to pace all rookies in passing yards in the 2024 NFL regular season. He's dealing just ahead of Jayden Daniels (Washington Commanders) and J.J. McCarthy (Minnesota Vikings), the only other QBs with +600 odds or shorter.

While Williams cashed his NFL draft odds and is the early favorite by the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, he's a risky bet to lead the field in passing yards given the Bears' shaky offensive line. That has us looking further down the board for a potential value play ahead of the 2024 season.

Here's a look at the 2024 NFL rookie passing leader odds from our best sportsbooks and our best NFL picks in this market:

Odds to finish with most NFL regular season rookie passing yards

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Favorites to lead NFL in rookie passing yards

Caleb Williams (+130 via Caesars)

Williams has been the favorite in every conceivable rookie market from the No. 1 pick to Offensive Rookie of the Year, so it's no surprise that he's the headliner in this market, too.

He'll have plenty of weapons at his disposal in Chicago, where star receiver D.J. Moore ranked sixth in receiving yards (1,364) with Justin Fields as his quarterback. The Bears also added former Los Angeles Chargers wideout Keenan Allen - who ranked sixth in receptions (108) in 2023 - and selected Washington star Rome Odunze with the No. 9 pick.

The biggest issue remains the offensive line, which stunted Fields' development in Chicago and could lead to growing pains for Williams as a rookie. Even so, these +130 odds imply a 43.49% probability that the former USC star leads all rookies in passing yards, per our odds converter, with a payout of $23 on a winning $10 wager.

Jayden Daniels (+320 via FanDuel)

While Williams was the unquestioned top prospect in this year's class, Daniels possesses arguably the highest upside of any passer in the draft.

The former LSU star ranked fifth in passing yards (3,812) and led the nation in yards per attempt (11.7) in 2023, earning the 2023 Heisman Trophy and prompting the Commanders to take him with the No. 2 pick. They also drafted a potential starting lineman (Brandon Coleman) in the third round after signing two new starters up front in free agency.

That's a good step toward repairing an O-line that allowed the second-most sacks (65) in 2023. Now Daniels hopes that receiver Terry McLaurin can take the long-awaited leap to superstardom if he hopes to cash at these odds, which carry an implied probability of 23.81% with a potential $42 payout on a $10 wager.

J.J. McCarthy (+350 via DraftKings)

After a dramatic lead-up to the draft that saw McCarthy's name floated as a top-three pick, the former Michigan passer fell to the No. 10 pick in the first round and landed in a stellar situation in Minnesota.

The Vikings led the NFL in non-sack adjusted passing yards (4,700) in 2023, which came even as starter Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles in Week 8 following a torrid start to the season. His replacements still averaged 260.7 passing yards over the final nine games under coach Kevin O'Connell, a Sean McVay disciple.

McCarthy averaged just 199.4 yards per game as a senior in 2023, though he wasn't asked to do much at the helm of the Wolverines' offense en route to a national title. If he gets a chance to show off his NFL-caliber arm, he could make good on these +350 odds, which imply a 22.22% chance of him returning $45 on a winning $10 bet.

NFL rookie passing leader prediction, best bet

J.J. McCarthy (Vikings)

McCarthy isn't my favorite QB in this class, but he walks into easily the best situation with two star receivers in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, an offensive-minded coach in O'Connell, and perhaps the best offensive line of any top rookie passer.

As mentioned above, the Vikings led the league in passing yards without accounting for sacks (which is how this market will be determined), even with over half the year spent rotating replacement-level QBs. If McCarthy is handed the keys to this offense right away - which isn't a guarantee - it's hard to imagine him falling short of 3,000 yards.

McCarthy doesn't have the creativity of Williams or the pure arm talent of Daniels, but he might be the most pro-ready passer of the bunch in the right situation. With so much uncertainty surrounding this entire class, I love this plus-money bet on McCarthy to put up numbers in Year 1.

Prediction: J.J. McCarthy (+350 via DraftKings)

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