Top Expert NFL Prop Picks: Week 11
Our football experts make their best Week 11 NFL player and team prop bet picks.
Only two teams are on a bye in Week 11. We have 14 games to go after the New England Patriots' dominant 25-0 win over the Atlanta Falcons on Thursday Night Football. The abundance of action gives us a wide variety of NFL prop bets from which to make our picks.
Here's a look at the top team and player NFL prop picks for the Week 11 schedule from our team of betting experts.
NFL Team Prop Picks
Dakota Cox: Arizona Cardinals first-half winner (-120)Martin Green: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Las Vegas Raiders – Over 9.5 first-quarter points (-125)Esten McLaren: Dallas Cowboys vs. Kansas City Chiefs: No team to score three unanswered times (+235)Mike Spector: Minnesota Vikings Over 2.5 touchdowns (-125)
NFL Player Prop Picks
Cox: Tua Tagovailoa to score a TD (+240)Green: Michael Carter Over 24.5 receiving yards (-115)McLaren: Tyrod Taylor Over 236.5 passing yards (-115)Spector: Ezekiel Elliott Over 66.5 rushing yards (-115)
SEE ALSO: Top 3 Underdog Picks of Week 11
Top NFL Week 11 Team Prop Picks
Cardinals first-half winner (-120)
The Cardinals should be able to handle their division rivals this week, but there is more value on the first-half moneyline than the for the full game. After a poor performance last week, it’s hard to know what the Seattle Seahawks offense will do. Even if they improve, their run game is weak. On the other side, the Cardinals are great off of a script and should be able to score early. - Cox
Bengals vs. Raiders – Over 9.5 first-quarter points (-125)
This game is poised to develop into a shootout between two teams with dangerous offenses and struggling defenses. They are both coming off heavy losses in their last games, and they will be keen to make amends as quickly as possible. It is a must-win game for both teams as they bid to reignite their playoff bids, so we should see a blistering start to proceedings.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow and WR Ja’Marr Chase should have a great deal of joy against a Raiders defense that gave up more than 500 yards against the Chiefs. Raiders QB Derek Carr and TE Darren Waller should also exploit Cincinnati’s defensive frailties. - Green
Cowboys vs. Chiefs: No team to score three unanswered times (+235)
The Cowboys continue to pace the NFL with 31.6 points scored per game. The Chiefs are up to 10th in the league by scoring offense after hanging 41 points on the rival Raiders in a 41-14 road win last week. After a horrendously slow start to the season, the Chiefs have begun to look more competent on defense with a total of 38 points allowed across three straight wins coming into Week 11’s marquee showdown at Arrowhead Stadium
This game has just a 2.5-point spread. While both teams have the offense to erase a big deficit, they should also be able to prevent such a lead from being built by their opponent. Expect a back-and-forth game to be hard-fought all the way, as suggested by the narrow spread. - McLaren
Vikings Over 2.5 touchdowns (-125)
It has been well-documented how dominant Green Bay’s defense has been over the last three weeks, despite facing a lethal trio of quarterbacks in Kyler Murray (Cardinals), Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), and Russell Wilson (Seahawks). How long can they keep it up for? LB Whitney Mercilus was placed on injured reserve due to a biceps injury, and DL Rashan Gary is questionable due to an elbow injury. Those would be two big pieces missing when trying to stop the power running of Dalvin Cook.
In addition, Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is not quite on the level of the last three quarterbacks Green Bay has faced, but he is quietly having a great year. Cousins has completed 68.1 percent of his passes to rank sixth in the NFL, and the Vikings average the seventh-most yards per game at 384.7. With the Packers not having the services of RB Aaron Jones (knee), it is not likely they have long drives to keep Minnesota’s offense off the field. - Spector
Top NFL Week 11 Player Prop Picks
Tagovailoa to score a TD (+240)
For clarification, this does not include passing touchdowns. It has to be a rushing or receiving score for Tagovailoa to hit here. Still, he has three rushing touchdowns in just four full games played this year. He also scored a rushing touchdown at the goal line in each of the last two games.
With no trustworthy run game and an injured backup quarterback, the Dolphins like to sneak it if they get within a yard of the end zone. Tagovailoa’s not a consistent mobile threat, but this has value. - Cox
Carter Over 24.5 receiving yards (-115)
Carter has emerged as an integral part of the Jets offense this season. Through nine games, he has rushed for 367 yards, and he also has 306 receiving yards. That equates to 34.0 receiving yards per game, which is 9.5 higher than his prop total for Sunday’s game against the Dolphins.
The Dolphins have the 328th-ranked pass defense this season, as they allow 273.8 yards per game on average through the air. Carter could enjoy another profitable day at the office. He has gone for more than 24.5 receiving yards in five of nine games so far this season, and it looks like an achievable target against Miami. - Green
Taylor Over 236.5 passing yards (-115)
Taylor returned from a hamstring injury to go 24-for-43 through the air for 240 yards against the Dolphins in Week 9. He tossed three interceptions while failing to find the end zone for the first time through his three starts.
The Titans are 9.5-point home favorites to suggest they’ll claim their seventh straight win. However, they failed to cover the spread for the first time in that stretch last week, and the streak includes two three-point victories. Tennessee is 27th in passing yards allowed per game and 13th with 7.2 yards allowed per attempt.
If the Texans are unable to keep it close throughout, the backdoor will at least be left open, and Taylor will be able to top a passing yards total comfortably shy of the number he has hit twice this season. - McLaren
Elliott Over 66.5 rushing yards (-115)
Elliott is on pace to obliterate his rushing stats from last season. His yards per carry are up from 4.0 to 4.7 this year. In addition, he has already surpassed his rushing touchdowns total from last year and already has 18 runs of 10 or more yards. He had 22 such runs all of last year.
Just because the Chiefs have allowed 12.7 points per game over their previous three games does not mean their defense is fixed all of a sudden. They were one of the worst rush defenses in the league for the first half of the season. In a game that will likely be a shootout (56.5 projected points), we like for Elliott to surpass this projected total for the first time in four weeks. - Spector
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