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Josh Allen NFL Player Props, Odds: Predictions for Steelers vs. Bills

Mike Spector

Last Updated: January 15, 2024 1:37 PM EST • 3 min 48 sec read.

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen looks to help keep his team's winning streak alive as he faces the Pittsburgh Steelers on Wild Card Weekend, and we offer our best Josh Allen NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.

Throughout the season, quarterback Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have experienced a rollercoaster ride of highs and lows. The turbulence that characterized their playoff journey has already established the atmosphere for their impending Monday showdown with the Pittsburgh Steelers during the NFL Wild Card Weekend. Initially planned for Sunday, the game had to be postponed due to travel concerns for both teams and fans amidst adverse weather conditions.

Winning their final three regular-season games, the Steelers finished with a 10-7 record, keeping intact head coach Mike Tomlin's impressive streak of achieving .500 or better every season with the team. That stretch coincided with the choice to field third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph, given that backup Mitch Trubisky faced difficulties stepping in for the injured starter Kenny Pickett.

Entering the playoffs on the NFL's longest winning streak — five games — the Bills have been in playoff mode for over a month. Not long ago, there were murmurs that Buffalo may miss the playoffs, but instead, it clinched an unexpected AFC East title.

Because of a blizzard and subsequent State of Emergency declared in Buffalo, this game was moved from Sunday at 1 p.m. ET to Monday at 4:30. Still, weather - especially cold temperatures and winds - are expected to be a major story of Monday's game.

To accompany our Steelers vs. Bills prediction and Steelers-Bills NFL player props, here are our best Josh Allen NFL player prop predictions (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Josh Allen NFL player prop predictions for Wild Card Weekend

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Josh Allen player props

Josh Allen Over 29.5 passing attempts (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Had this Steelers-Bills game been played on Sunday as regularly scheduled, the person it likely would have impacted the most would have been Allen, as the wind gusts would have consistently been around 30 mph. However, Monday’s forecast calls for much less wind (at most 15 mph gusts), which means offensive coordinator Joe Brady will likely not be as conservative as he would have been in worse weather.

Allen has attempted 30-plus passes in five of the last seven games, and will likely be able to find holes against a Steelers defense that will play primarily zone coverage. Per ESPN Stats & Info, Allen has completed 75% of his passes and averaged 8.2 yards per attempt on throws between the numbers over the last two games, while Pittsburgh has allowed 8.0 yards per attempt on passes between the numbers, which ranks in the bottom-six of the league.

FanDuel offers a slightly worse O/U of 30.5 pass attempts for Over backers, so we are headed to DraftKings for the best value.

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Josh Allen Under 0.5 interceptions (+105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Though Pittsburgh’s defense finished the regular season tied for 11th in interceptions (16), we are too tempted by the plus-money odds at BetMGM for Allen to play interception-free football, as it is the only one of our best sports betting sites offering better than +100 odds for this wager.

Allen’s 18 interceptions were second to Sam Howell’s 21 among all quarterbacks in the regular season, and he went only three games without an interception this season. However, two of those three games were against playoff teams (Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins), and Pittsburgh’s defense without T.J. Watt is much less fearsome than when he plays.

Per Fantasy Life’s Ian Hartitz, the Steelers ranked fourth in EPA allowed per play in 10 games when Watt was healthy and ranked 30th in the same metric in the seven games that he missed.

Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

Allen was contacted 178 times last season, the fourth-most among all quarterbacks. Thus, the Bills coaching staff made a conscious effort to not use him in as many designed runs early in the season, to keep him as healthy as possible.

However, when their season was on the line much of the last month, Allen started to take on more responsibility. The only three games in which he had double-digit carries came within the final five weeks.

Allen had at least one rushing touchdown in 12 games this season, and his 10 games with a passing and rushing touchdown set an NFL single-season record. He came into this season with the highest percentage of his team’s rushing yards by a quarterback over the last two seasons (34%), and he was also tied for the highest percentage (84%) of a team’s offensive touchdowns (passing and/or rushing) in 2022.

Thus, in the team’s most important game to this point, we expect the Bills coaching staff to let the bruising Allen find the end zone when close to the goal line again.

BetMGM is the only sportsbook offering a better price than -110, and this wager is juiced as low as -121 at BetRivers.

See our Esten McLaren's anytime touchdown scorer predictions.

Josh Allen player prop picks made 1/14/2023 at 12:28 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”