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Browns vs. Commanders Odds, Picks, Predictions Week 17: Will Cleveland Extend NFL’s Longest Under Streak?

Brenden Schaeffer

Last Updated: January 1, 2023 5:45 AM EST • 2 min 23 sec read.

Deshaun Watson has struggled since returning to the field with the Cleveland Browns. Can the Washington Commanders take advantage of the rusty quarterback during their pursuit of a playoff berth? Read on for our top Commanders-Browns NFL picks based on the latest odds.

The Browns (6-9) are out of the playoff picture. They weren't able to sustain enough success prior to the late-season arrival of Watson.

Watson hasn’t played well down the stretch anyway, which could mean an advantage for the Commanders (7-7-1) on Sunday. Washington needs a win to boost its wild card hopes in a crowded NFC.

Here is our best Browns-Commanders NFL pick for Week 17 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NFL best bets and all of our top NFL picks for Week 17.

Browns vs. Commanders Game Info

  • Date: Sunday, Jan. 1, 2022, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: FOX
  • Location: FedEx Field, Landover, MD
  • Weather: 50 Degrees, 0% Precipitation, 5-mph winds

Browns vs. Commanders Odds

Browns vs. Commanders Odds Analysis

The Commanders opened as two-point home favorites, but they aren't getting much love from the public. Currently, 59% of the money wagered on the spread has been bet on the Browns. The spread across our top sportsbooks ranges from between Washington -1.5 to -2.5. 

The total opened at 42 points and has dipped across the board to between 40.5 and 41. Right now, 63% of the handle has been placed on the Under.

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Browns vs. Commanders Pick

Under 41.5 (-110) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Browns enter Sunday riding a streak of five consecutive Unders, the NFL's longest such run. The Over hasn't hit in a game involving Cleveland since Watson took over for Jacoby Brissett as the starting quarterback. Nick Chubb has remained mostly bottled up, and his sledding could remain tough against a Washington defense that ranks 11th in rush defense DVOA.

Cleveland’s defense is the biggest concern for Under bettors in this matchup, as the Browns rank 21st in the league in defensive scoring average while allowing 22.9 points per game. But Cleveland has been stronger than that lately, allowing just 14.3 points over its last three contests. The Browns face Carson Wentz amid his triumphant return. The Commanders have scored just 17.4 points in games with Wentz under center.

No Browns game has cleared 41 points since Nov. 20. The home-road trends for the teams in this matchup also favor the Under. Browns road games are 2-4 to the Over, while Commanders home games have gone 2-5.

The number has dipped closer to 40 throughout the week, but anything above 40 points should still offer quality value given the questionable offenses involved.

Check out our NFL Week 17 touchdown-scorer prop picks.

Browns vs. Commanders Best Odds

DraftKings, BetMGM: Under 41 (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
4140.54140.540.5
-110-110-110-110-110

DraftKings and BetMGM offer the total at 41 points with standard -110 odds on the Under. That’s a preferable line compared to the listings at FanDuel, Caesars, and PointsBet which post the number a half-point lower.

The line movement down from 42 does slightly limit the value of the pick. But as long as you’re taking the line at 41 instead of 40.5, you'll get the benefit of a push on final scores like 21-20, 24-17, or 27-14.

Check out our NFL Week 17 upset picks.

Browns-Commanders pick made 12/31/2022 at 12:45 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Brenden Schaeffer
Brenden has covered the St. Louis Cardinals as a credentialed baseball writer for KMOV-TV since 2016. His sports writing has appeared in outlets including the Austin American-Statesman and Columbia Daily Tribune. Since 2021, Brenden has co-hosted 'The Big Show' during the afternoon drive for KTGR, the ESPN radio affiliate in Columbia, MO. He has appeared on radio stations around the country, including KMOX, and hosts a daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast. In the sports betting content space, Brenden has covered the NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball for outlets including SBR since 2019. For his football handicapping, Brenden looks to target NFL player prop markets as well as sharp underdog lines in college football. Brenden looks to reference FanDuel for his sports betting articles because of its consistently competitive odds on parlays. FanDuel's boost offerings are also customer-friendly, and its odds on the NFL Same Game Parlay articles he's written for SBR have historically been consistently competitive compared to other books.