Bills vs. Rams Week 1 NFL Picks: L.A.'s Title Defense Starts Off Successfully

Top NFL picks for Bills vs Rams in Week 1. Three picks on the NFL 2022 season opener.

Mike Spector

Last Updated: September 9, 2022 12:28 AM EDT • 4 minute read

The defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams host the Buffalo Bills to kick off the 2022 NFL season. We’re breaking down the betting angles with our Bills-Rams picks.

The Bills enter the 2022 NFL season as the favorites to win the Super Bowl for the first time since the Jim Kelly era. Meanwhile, the Rams have the daunting task of trying to be the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since the New England Patriots did it in 2003 and 2004.

Here are our Bills-Rams NFL picks for Week 1 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook, PointsBet, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bills vs. Rams Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, Sept. 8, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
Weather: 94 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, 7-mph SSW winds

Bills vs. Rams Odds Analysis

When this line first opened early in the summer, the Rams were favored at -1. However, the line has since jumped the fence, and Buffalo is as high as a -2.5 favorite, though it has not quite had the steam to get to the key number of 3. As of early Monday morning, the Bills had received 62% of the bets and 75% of the cash. That split had softened by Wednesday with a modest 58% of the handle backing Buffalo but on just 53% of the tickets.

The total has stayed much more stable compared to the point spread, only fluctuating from 52 to 52.5. So far, the Over is the popular play, landing 67% of the tickets and 73% of the cash. We expect the bets and tickets to keep flowing in on the Over for the marquee season-opener. Under bettors are best to wait until closest to kickoff.

Bills vs. Rams Picks

Bills vs. Rams ATS Pick

Rams +2.5 (-110) ★★

The likeliest reason for the Rams being home underdogs was the concern over Matthew Stafford’s elbow after he missed parts of training camp and received an injection in his right arm to address pain he felt last season. However, recent reports indicate that the Rams quarterback will have no limitations in the opener.

Buffalo has lost its last nine games against defending Super Bowl champions, most recently a 33-27 overtime loss at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Dec. 12 last year. And including the playoffs last year, Buffalo went just 2-5 against teams outside the AFC East that finished with a record above .500.

We are not as concerned about Stafford’s injury as the oddsmakers, so the Bills will have to prove they are worthy of the preseason hype before we back them with a wager.

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

Bills vs. Rams O/U Pick

Under 52.5 (-105) ★★★★

The Bills scored 31 or more points in 11 of their 19 games last season, but we expect them to struggle against what could be a better Rams defense this year than last year. Los Angeles added veteran Bobby Wagner, who will solidify a linebacking corps that was L.A.'s weak spot last year. To hide their linebackers, the Rams played dime defense (six defensive backs), the third-most of any team last year. But they will be able to play a more traditional style of defense with Wagner as an anchor on the middle level.

When these two teams met in Week 3 in 2020, the Rams pressured Allen on 40.5% of dropbacks. However, Buffalo’s pass rush also expects to be much better after plucking Von Miller and his 115.5 career sacks from the Rams.

Buffalo led the NFL in defensive efficiency last year and was first in defensive DVOA. It finished sixth in pass rush win rate and second in pressure rate despite barely blitzing last year, and the addition of Miller raises the Bills’ defensive ceiling that much higher.

To see our Bills vs. Rams same-game parlay picks, click here.

Bills vs. Rams Prop Pick

Kupp Over 7.5 receptions (-110) ★★★

Buffalo’s defense will reach new stratospheres once All-Pro cornerback Tre’Davious White is activated off the PUP list. But until then, Buffalo’s secondary has question marks with Taron Johnson and Dane Jackson on opposite sides.

While veteran wideout Allen Robinson II will likely need time to get his rhythm down with Stafford, the Rams quarterback will lean on Cooper Kupp a lot early in the season as the wide receiver looks to build off his Triple Crown (led the league in yards, receptions, and touchdowns) from a year ago.

We expect a lot of two high-safety looks from Buffalo to make the Rams move the ball methodically down the field, which means Kupp will be peppered with several short targets.

Where to Bet on Bills vs. Rams Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Bills-Rams picks made 9/5/2022 at 6:18 a.m. ET

Written by:
Mike Spector

Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”