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NFL Award Picks & Predictions 2023-24: Best Value Odds for Top NFL Honors

Thom Cunningham

Last Updated: January 2, 2024 1:37 PM EST • 3 min 11 sec read.

Our best Super Bowl betting sites are gearing up for the NFL playoffs, but there are still markets with potential value to explore with the end-of-season NFL awards. Let's dive into the best value picks out there, as many of these markets seem out of reach for the most part.

Our best NFL betting sites have NFL award markets still open as we cross into the final week of the regular season. We enter Week 18 with some teams likely benching players while others look to reach the playoffs while leaning heavily on some undervalued players in their respective reward markets.

Here are the best value plays to consider for the NFL award markets entering Week 18 based on odds from our best sports betting apps.

NFL award value best bets

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Defensive Player of the Year value pick

T.J. Watt (+650 via Caesars) ⭐⭐

All of these plays will be two stars, mainly because this is a value pick article and value picks are often at a higher risk of failure. With that said, let's begin in the Defensive Player of the Year market, as Caesars is offering a very generous price for a player who statistically should win this award.

Pittsburgh Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt has four forced fumbles this season, which ties market favorite Myles Garrett for the season. He also has more fumble recoveries and touchdowns than both Garrett and Micah Parsons. Watt has a league-high 17 sacks through 16 games and looks to win this stat title for the third time in the last four years.

Offensive Rookie of the Year value pick

Puka Nacua (+450 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

This might have the best chance of actually hitting, as Los Angeles Rams rookie wide receiver Puka Nacua is on the verge of possibly stealing this market from Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud. Stroud returned from a two-game injury absence last week, but it wasn't enough to stop Nacua's odds shortening in this market.

It's no question that the time missed by Stroud has allowed Nacua to crawl back into the light. His Week 16 game on Thursday was the deciding factor for our best sports betting sites to keep Nacua's odds within striking distance of the favorite Stroud.

As we enter Week 18, this market is much closer than the odds indicate as one bad performance from Stroud might be enough to give Nacua a nudge. Houston also plays on Saturday night, so Nacua's value will either grow or narrow based on the Texans vs. Colts game.

Defensive Rookie of the Year value pick

Will Anderson (+400 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

Despite the long odds from market favorite Jalen Carter, Anderson jumped from 30/1 to 4/1 over a week. The Philadelphia Eagles are vastly struggling on defense as well, dropping their last game to the Arizona Cardinals while allowing 35 points.

Anderson is in a similar but opposite situation as his teammate Stroud. He is on the outside looking in, but set up nicely to play well against Indianapolis and potentially see his name flip to the favorite when Sunday of Week 18 rolls around.

Again, Houston plays on Saturday which will impact both he and Carter's odds. Now is the time to take a ticket on Anderson if you're still looking for value in these award markets. 

Comeback Player of the Year value pick

Baker Mayfield (+1600 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐

This is the best play in the NFL award markets strictly on price, as Mayfield presents a wonderful case to win this award but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have to win the division in order for this to stand a chance. So if Tampa Bay loses on Sunday, this ticket can be ripped up.

If Tampa Bay wins, however, expect these odds to shorten to three-digits and possibly leap Cleveland Browns QB Joe Flacco who still needs to perform very well in Week 18. Also keep in mind that Mayfield has played an entire season, whereas Flacco has played just five games entering Week 18.

Responsible voters will be putting Mayfield ahead of Flacco, or should be at least. 

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Written By:
Thom Cunningham
Thom Cunningham has been working in sports media for 15 years covering over 30 different leagues and betting events. He is a former Editorial Production Manager, Digital Content Producer, and statistician for various betting entities and organizations such as Spectrum Sports and Stats Perform, LLC. He has appeared on VSIN and BetMGM Tonight to share his wide range of sports betting knowledge.