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Arkansas Razorbacks guard Boogie Fland rebounds as we make our best Florida vs. Arkansas prediction.
Arkansas Razorbacks guard Boogie Fland rebounds at Bud Walton Arena. Photo by Nelson Chenault / Imagn Images.

The Florida Gators are fresh off a beatdown of the No. 1 team in the country, which has them installed as road favorites for this SEC clash against the Arkansas Razorbacks at Bud Walton Arena in Fayetteville, Ark.

The Gators are currently 5.5-point favorites over Arkansas (with -110 juice on either side of the point spread), with tip-off set for 4 p.m. ET (ESPN). 

But my Florida vs. Arkansas prediction examines if this is a good sell-high spot for the Gators.

Before this game tips off, I have you covered with my Notre Dame vs. Duke odds, prediction & picks to keep you engaged all afternoon.

Best Florida vs. Arkansas picks today

College basketball picks based on the odds from our best March Madness betting sites. Odds subject to change.

  • Against the spread pick: Arkansas +5.5 (-110 via BetMGM) vs. Florida ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • My best pick: Walter Clayton Jr. Over 2.5 3-pointers made (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Florida vs. Arkansas ATS prediction

Arkansas to cover the spread: +5.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Razorbacks are sure to be the contrarian play in this matchup given that the betting public will likely side with Florida while using the transitive property.

Florida’s 73-43 win over No. 1 Tennessee was its first home win over a top-ranked team in school history. Meanwhile, Tennessee pummeled Arkansas by 24 points the game before, the Volunteers’ seventh-largest win over a ranked opponent.

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I expect Arkansas’ quick-hitting offense to give Florida fits, as the Razorbacks entered the Tennessee game ranked in the 97th percentile rate and 95th percentile efficiency in early shot-clock half-court possessions, per Synergy.

Kentucky gashed Florida's defense for 1.47 points per possession in its last road game, and I expect a desperate Bud Walton Arena crowd will do its best to help the Razorbacks avoid a three-game losing streak.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 52.38%

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Best Florida vs. Arkansas pick

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Walter Clayton Over 2.5 made 3-pointers ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Clayton has scored 12 or fewer points in four of the last five games, and has two games shooting 1-for-6 or worse from 3-point range in that span.

While Arkansas allowed 73 or fewer points in six of the nine games since Jonas Aidoo returned from a three-game absence, his interior presence should also have Florida shooting from the perimeter more often.

Clayton Jr. has only gone over this projected total once in the last five games, but that was a 6-for-12 performance from beyond the arc against Kentucky. Therefore, I would not put anyone off backing Clayton’s alternate lines given how streaky he can get.

Best odds: -115 via bet365 | Implied probability: 53.49%

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Live Florida vs. Arkansas odds

See all of this week's college basketball odds and NCAAB scores.

Florida vs. Arkansas opening odds

  • Spread: Florida -5.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | Arkansas +5.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
  • Over/Under: Over 155.5 (-115 via BetMGM) | Under 155.5 (-105 via BetMGM)
  • Moneyline: Florida -250 via BetMGM | Arkansas +195 via BetMGM

Florida vs. Arkansas game info

  • When: Saturday, Jan. 11
  • Tipoff: 4 p.m. ET
  • Where: Bud Walton Arena (Fayetteville, Ark.)
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Favorite: Florida -5.5 (-110 via BetMGM)

College basketball betting odds pages

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

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