Thunder vs. Suns NBA Picks: Can scrappy OKC cover against first-place Phoenix?

Top NBA picks for Thunder vs Suns for December 23. ATS plays for a big payout! Don't miss out! SBR - trusted by bettors for over 20 years.

Zachary Hanshew

Last Updated: December 23, 2021 5:47 AM EST • 4 minute read

The Oklahoma City Thunder are on a three-game win streak and boast the healthiest roster in the NBA. Can these scrappy youngsters cover against the first-place Phoenix Suns? We break it down with our Thunder-Suns picks.

Even if you’re not an avid NBA fan, you’ve no doubt heard about the dozens of players currently in the Association’s health and safety protocols. Games have been postponed, 10-day contracts have been given out like candy, and some teams are sending skeleton crews out on the court. After sifting through Thursday's injury reports, I can find only one team at full strength with no injuries: Oklahoma City.

Health is of vital importance in the NBA these days, and the Thunder will have a full arsenal at their disposal when they take on the Western Conference’s top seed in Phoenix. The Suns are nearly at full strength as well. Guard Devin Booker teased a triple-double in Tuesday’s win over the Los Angeles Lakers, and center Deandre Ayton has four straight double doubles. Both players are fully healthy after missing some time.

Obviously, this is a one-sided affair. The reigning Western Conference champs with Booker, Ayton, point guard Chris Paul, and a strong cast of role players versus Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, forward Lu Dort, and teenage rookie guard Josh Giddey seems like an unfair fight. That’s where we can find some value.

Here are my Thunder-Suns picks and predictions for Thursday’s NBA matchup (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thunder vs. Suns Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, Dec. 23, 9 p.m. ETTV: BSOK, BSAZLocation: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

Thunder vs. Suns Odds Analysis

The Suns opened as 14.5-point favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook, and the line has moved by half a point to 15. Eighty percent of the bets and 93% of the money are on the hosts at the time of publishing.

The Over/Under opened at 214.5, and it has rebounded to that number after briefly dropping to 214. The Thunder have gone under 215 points in five of their last six games, while the Suns have gone under this point total three times in their last six contests. Just over 50% of the bets and cash are on the Over.

Thunder vs. Suns Picks

Thunder +15 (-110) ????Under 214.5 (-110) ???Chris Paul double-double (+135)

Thunder vs. Suns Predictions

Thunder +15 (-110)

Oklahoma City is in the midst of a rebuild and is still developing its promising young core. Youth and inexperience have contributed to inconsistent performances throughout the season, so it’s easy to jump on Phoenix at -15 given the huge gap in talent, consistency, experience, and record between these two squads.

Phoenix sits atop the Western Conference standings at 25-5, while Oklahoma City is out of the playoff picture at 11-19. The Thunder lost by more than 15 points in seven of their 19 losses, while the Suns won by 15 or more points in eight of their 25 victories. Phoenix’s plus-7.6 net rating is third-best in the NBA, while Oklahoma City’s is third-worst at minus-8.0. Now that I’ve gotten the disparities out of the way, let’s get to why OKC will cover.

Because the Thunder have been such huge dogs in most of their games (favored only twice this season), they are 19-11 ATS overall. That includes a 9-5 record as road underdogs, a 7-3 record following a win, and 2-2 with no rest, as they come off Wednesday's 108-94 win over the Denver Nuggets.

Phoenix is 9-7 ATS at home and 8-6 ATS on the road, and Oklahoma City is 10-6-0 at home and 9-5-0 on the road. Neither team has a strong situational advantage, so the fact that OKC is on the road shouldn’t move the needle on betting the Thunder at +15.

The Thunder are on a three-game win streak for just the second time this season and have won five of the last eight games, thanks to strong performances from Giddey, Gilgeous-Alexander, and Dort. The five wins have come directly following the Thunder’s embarrassing 152-79 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, an NBA record 73-point margin of victory.

Under 214.5 (-110)

It would be great as an NBA fan to see the Thunder knock off the Suns in a wild upset, but as a bettor, I’m not going to get crazy.

The Suns hit the Under in 17 of 30 games, while the Thunder hit the Under in 19 of 30, including all three recent wins.

The Thunder have averaged 104.7 points per game over their last three outings, just slightly better than the team’s NBA-worst 99.5 PPG for the season. Over the recent span, the Thunder have limited opponents to 98.7 points per game.

Paul double-double (+135)

Ayton is (-240) to record a double-double after doing so in each of his last four games. That’s a pretty bland bet, so let’s go for a plus-money wager on CP3.

Paul leads the NBA with 10.0 assists per game and has recorded a double-double in 14 of 30 games played. Of those, nine were recorded in home games. Paul has come close to a triple-double twice this season, though his season-high in rebounds is only eight. I’m not betting on him to record a triple-double at (+5500), but his double-double prop feels very attainable.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Thunder-Suns picks made 12/23/2021 at 10:55 a.m. ET.

Written by:
Zachary Hanshew

Zak Hanshew has been covering the NFL and NBA since 2018, writing about fantasy sports, daily fantasy sports, and sports betting. He joined Sportsbook Review for the 2022-23 NBA season and looks forward to his third NBA campaign. Zak has had bylines for over half a dozen publications, most notably Yahoo and NBA.com. As a sports writer, Zak has been recognized for his attention to detail and insight into NBA betting trends. Zak is an avid NBA bettor who loves a prop bet, particularly a favorable combo prop. Of particular interest in the betting space are long shots such as first-basket scorer, but nothing beats a triple-double prop. He loves to target plus-money props with educated and well-researched analysis to back up his picks. Zak holds a Bachelor’s and a Master’s degree from West Virginia University and roots avidly for his Mountaineers.