The Denver Nuggets need to respond during Wednesday's Game 3 after the Miami Heat stole home-court advantage. Shane Jackson is counting on Nikola Jokic and Co. to do just that with his same-game parlay for Game 3 of the NBA Finals using the latest NBA odds.
Game 3 of the 2023 NBA Finals became a lot more interesting after the Miami Heat came through with their 111-108 upset over the Denver Nuggets in Game 2. With the series tied at 1-1 and moving back to Miami, the Heat hold the upper hand despite still being betting underdogs to win the championship.
In my Nuggets-Heat Game 3 preview, I gave out a player prop to attack based on Miami's recent lineup tweak. But now it's time to have some fun with this NBA Finals matchup by putting together a same-game parlay at plus-money odds. And I'm backing the road team to rebound.
Here are our NBA SGP picks for Wednesday's Game 3 (odds via FanDuel).
Wednesday's NBA SGP picks
|Nuggets vs. Heat||Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 points and Nuggets moneyline||+110|
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Nuggets vs. Heat odds
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NBA SGP predictions: Nuggets vs. Heat
Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 points (-320)
Defending Jokic is impossible because of what he provides as a scorer and passer. You almost need to live with him going off in one category between assists and points. The Heat did just that in Game 2, allowing Jokic to finish with 41 points and four assists.
Jokic will try to share the rock a bit more, but he'll still thrive in this matchup as a scorer. He scored 27 points in Game 1 and has recorded 25-plus points in 12 of his 17 contests during this playoff run. Jokic is averaging 26.2 points per contest during this postseason.
The rest of our best sports betting apps are offering Jokic's alternate points prop as low as 25.5, which changes the same-game parlay odds to +130 at both DraftKings and BetMGM. We prefer playing it a bit safer while taking the extra point of breathing room at FanDuel.
Jokic's points prop across the best sports betting sites has been set at 28.5, and it could be worth taking the Over for those interested in backing the league's best player.
Nuggets ML vs. Heat (-144)
Based on the odds at our best sportsbooks, only DraftKings is offering a better moneyline price on the Nuggets to win Game 3 with a value of -140. However, that isn't worth sacrificing the extra point that FanDuel's points prop market provides.
Denver has only lost back-to-back games once during this playoff run, though that came after taking a 2-0 lead on the Phoenix Suns. The Nuggets should bounce back in Game 3, with Jokic leading the way.
More importantly, we're expecting some shooting regression from the Heat. The Nuggets were expected to record a 105.3-98.5 win over the Heat in Game 2, according to ShotQuality. Shooting tends to balance out over the course of a series, particularly for a top-seeded Nuggets squad.
Adding a Denver moneyline leg to this same-game parlay was an easy choice.
NBA same-game parlay made 06/07/2023 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
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