NBA Player Props, Predictions for Monday: Beal, Giddey, and Russell
The NBA slate on Monday includes eight games, so if you're too busy researching your Super Bowl wagers, I have you covered. Check out Sportsbook Review betting analyst Jon Metler's favorite NBA player props for Monday's games using the best NBA odds.
With our NBA player prop bets in the assists market performing well, we look forward to closing out January strong. To accomplish this, we will rely on some familiar names on Monday, as they're once again showing value. Below is my record on bets placed in the assists market during the month of January:
- 29-13 for +17.91 Units 🔥
Here are our best NBA player props for Monday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, and BetRivers; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our NBA Same Game Parlay picks for Monday, as well as our NBA best bets and Lakers vs. Nets picks!
NBA player props for Monday
- Bradley Beal Over 4.5 assists vs. Spurs (-118 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Josh Giddey Over 5.5 assists vs. Warriors (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- D'Angelo Russell Over 6.5 assists vs. Kings (+115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Check out our complete list of NBA odds here!
NBA player props
Bradley Beal Over 4.5 assists vs. Spurs (-118 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
We caught a lucky break with Bradley Beal, which will allow us to wager on his assists prop for the second straight game. Last time he played, we played the Over 4.5 assists and he had five assists in the first half, making it an easy win for us.
What is fortunate about the way this played out is that he didn't record another assist and finished the game with five. We can once again attack this price point on Beal for Monday's game against the San Antonio Spurs as a result of this lack of change in his odds.
The projected number of assists for Beal on Monday is just over six, which is significantly higher than the total of 4.5. Based on this projection, this prop should trade at -245, rather than -118. In other words, this bet has a positive expected value of 31%, earning it a rare five-star rating.
Josh Giddey Over 5.5 assists vs. Warriors (-120 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
In the past, we've been pretty successful when we identify value on a player's assists prop, our bet misses, and then we come back with another bet on them because they show even greater value, for example, Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo.
We'll have exactly this scenario with Josh Giddey when he and the Oklahoma City Thunder take on the Golden State Warriors on Monday. Giddey is projected to drop 6.6 dimes against the Warriors, so the Over 5.5 assists should trade at -175.
There's a possibility that his price point will reach this level before tipoff since FanDuel has already moved his odds from Over 5.5 (-120) to (-142). With a price of -175, this bet has a positive expected value of 16% and is rated as a four-star bet.
Since the -120 is only available at BetMGM and DraftKings, I wouldn't hesitate to place a wager on this prop. Several other sportsbooks, such as FanDuel and PointsBet, have already adjusted the Over 5.5, reducing our edge.
D'Angelo Russell Over 6.5 assists vs. Kings (+115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Welcome back to the assists prop D'Angelo Russell! He has been kind to us the last several times we have backed him, so let's hope he can earn us another green check mark on Monday.
In my same-game parlay picks for Monday, I highlighted Russell's edge as one of the best among the six players included in the parlay. As such, we also find ourselves making a single bet on him.
Considering Russell is projected to drop 7.3 assists against the Sacramento Kings on Monday, we can price this prop at -140. Since we're getting +115 from BetMGM on this prop, we're back on the Russell bandwagon.
With a positive expected value of 25%, this bet receives a four-star rating. To maximize your edge, be sure to take advantage of the +115 price point at BetMGM and DraftKings.
NBA player prop picks made 1/30/2023 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
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