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Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

Is Darius Garland capable of shooting the lights out on Tuesday and earning us a green checkmark? Jon Metler shares his NBA best bets for Tuesday's schedule using the best NBA odds.

I didn't wake up on Tuesday expecting to be locked in on the Atlanta Hawks matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers, but that's where the odds and numbers are directing my attention. 

There's nothing that gets me out of bed faster than a rogue price, and BetRivers had me wide awake before I had even had my first cup of coffee on Tuesday morning.

In our NBA best bets article, we have gained 12.61 units over the past two weeks and we're off and running for the third consecutive week, going 3-1 for +1.65 units on Monday. 

Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.

Tuesday’s NBA schedule and odds

(odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)

  • Boston Celtics (-11.5) vs. Washington Wizards
  • Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors (-3)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers (-1) vs. Atlanta Hawks
  • Charlotte Hornets vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-9)
  • Orlando Magic vs. Memphis Grizzlies (-7.5)
  • New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors (-8.5)

Tuesday’s NBA best bets

  • Player prop: Darius Garland Over 21.5 points vs. Hawks (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Spread: Raptors -2.5 vs. Heat (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: John Collins Over 5.5 rebounds vs. Cavaliers (+110 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Tyler Herro Over 18.5 points vs. Raptors (-114 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Tuesday’s NBA player prop picks

Player prop: Darius Garland Over 21.5 points vs. Hawks (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Garland has exceeded this total only once in his last six games for the Cavaliers, which is perfect for me since trends don't matter to me. 

It's projected that Garland will score 23.6 points against the Hawks on Tuesday, which is significantly higher than the projections he normally receives. This projection allows us to price Garland at -140 to go Over his total of 21.5 points. 

Usually, when a notable player is this far above his projection, we see some significant line movement early in the day. I would be shocked if this total didn't climb to 22.5 points by mid-afternoon. If you're reading this during your lunch break, I suggest you hit the button because I don't expect it to be available once you've finished work. 

Player prop: John Collins Over 5.5 rebounds vs. Cavaliers (+110 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Will Collins surpass his rebounding total on Tuesday? The projections seem to indicate so, but the most important aspect of this bet is the rogue price BetRivers chose to trade it at. 

BetRivers is offering Collins Over 5.5 rebounds at +110, while PointsBet is at -105, DraftKings is at -110, and Caesars is at -111. This is a bet on Collins, but it's also a bet that all of these sportsbooks can't possibly be wrong, and only BetRivers are correct. 

As well as the rogue pricing, Collins is projected to grab 6.1 rebounds against the Cavaliers, which means we can price this prop at -125. BetRivers is operating rogue in terms of its pricing, and our projections suggest that we should take advantage of this. 

Check out our NBA Finals odds and NBA MVP odds.

Player prop: Tyler Herro Over 18.5 points vs. Raptors (-114 via BetRivers)

This comes with everything you could ever ask for in a bet, including line movement, rogue pricing, and projections in line with the market's treatment of the wager. Tyler Herro Over 18.5 points receives a five-star rating as it passes all those checks and balances.

Herro is projected to score 20.8 points for the Heat against the Raptors on Tuesday, so we can price him at -155 to go Over the total of 18.5 points. My guess is you don't want Herro to be this much of a sweat, but I actually hope he scores 19 points since I'm also betting on the Raptors at -2.5.

Along with the projection telling us to play the Over, BetRivers is also offering a bit of a rogue price at -114. At FanDuel and PointsBet, the Over on 18.5 points is trading at -125, while the Over on 18.5 is at -135 through DraftKings. 

Tyler Herro bet made 03/28/2023 at 1:00 p.m. ET..

NBA game picks

Spread: Raptors -2.5 vs. Heat (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Toronto Raptors will host the Miami Heat in Toronto on Tuesday, and I'm noticing a discrepancy between the spread and projections. BetMGM has the Raptors as 2.5-point favorites, but projections indicate they will win by 4.5 points. We can price the Raptors at -133 to cover the 2.5-point spread using this projection, yet we can buy them at BetMGM for -115.

It's also an excellent opportunity to do some price shopping, as we continue to beat up on BetMGM. The Raptors are 2.5-point favorites at BetMGM, while they are 3-point favorites everywhere else. At FanDuel, there's a Raptors -3 (-108) available, and the value of that bet is identical to that of the Raptors -2.5 (-115) we're purchasing at BetMGM. 

NBA best bets made 03/28/2023 at 5:30 a.m. ET.

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