NBA Player Prop Picks, Predictions for Wednesday: SGA, Conley & Russell

Jon Metler examines the NBA player prop market and finds three of his favorite bets.

Jon Metler

Last Updated: January 18, 2023 10:12 AM EST • 4 minute read

There are nine NBA games on the schedule on Wednesday and some interesting matchups, including Trae Young vs. Luka Doncic. I have selected three of my favorite NBA player props for Wednesday's games using the latest NBA odds.

In sports betting, you can't play scared, and one of my three NBA player props for Wednesday reflects that sentiment. When you see good numbers, don't let the bet's history discourage you from taking them.

Wednesday's NBA player props board has a lot to like, so follow me on Twitter because I'll definitely have more picks in addition to what I'm talking about here.

Here are our best NBA player prop picks for Wednesday (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Cavaliers vs. Grizzles picks for Wednesday!

NBA Player Prop Picks for Wednesday

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 assists vs. Pacers (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Mike Conley Over 6.5 assists vs. Clippers (+105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
D'Angelo Russell Over 6.5 assists vs. Nuggets (+112 vs. FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds

Check out our complete list of NBA odds here!

NBA Player Props

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 assists vs. Pacers (+125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Gilgeous-Alexander handed me one of my worst losses of the season on Sunday when I bet him Over 5.5 assists and he only finished with one. I thought Gilgeous-Alexander's total of 5.5 was too low against the Brooklyn Nets, and I feel the same way now as he prepares to face the Indiana Pacers.

There's a bright side to the fact that he only got me one assist on Sunday, which is that we can now bet the Over 5.5 at +125 on Wednesday, when we had to settle for +112 on Sunday.

Gilgeous-Alexander is projected for slightly more than six assists against the Pacers, which means the Over 5.5 assists should be trading at -130, not +125.

SGA Over 5.5 assists (+125) via DraftKings has a positive expected value of 27%, which is why it has been rated with a four-star confidence rating. Buy this prop at DraftKings rather than FanDuel; even just settling for the +114 on FanDuel will eliminate 7% of your edge.

Mike Conley Over 6.5 assists vs. Clippers (+105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

Conley finds himself in a perfect situation to get assists, as his team loves to shoot threes and Walker Kessler is inside finishing dump-off passes for dunks.

Conley is looking to break down a defense and create for others, as evidenced by the fact he has registered double-digit field goal attempts just once in his last six games.

The Utah Jazz point guard will be facing a tired Los Angeles Clippers defense on Wednesday night, which just played the Philadelphia 76ers on Tuesday.

Conley is projected to record eight assists on Wednesday, which is much higher than the total of 6.5 posted at BetMGM. Our projection indicates the Over should be trading at -204, and yet BetMGM is offering us a plus money price of +105.

The Over 6.5 assists (+105) is not available at just any sportsbook, as we're seeing FanDuel and PointsBet trade this prop at a minus money price. With our price of -204, this prop has a positive expected value of 37%, earning it a five-star confidence rating.

D'Angelo Russell Over 6.5 assists vs. Nuggets (+112 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This bet is designed to get ahead of the injury report and increase the wager's value.

Anthony Edwards and Kyle Anderson are both questionable for the Minnesota Timberwolves' game against the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday. It'll be up to D'Angelo Russell to create a lot of offense for the Timberwolves if Edwards and Anderson miss the game.

Even if both play, I still don't hate this number; just look at the Timberwolves last game against the Jazz. Russell surpassed the total with seven assists, while Anderson had 10 and Edwards added five. Although Anderson dominated the assists category for the Timberwolves, Russell still made it over the total.

Russell is projected to have just over seven assists on Wednesday, so the Over 6.5 should be trading at -145. If Edwards and Anderson are ruled out, the projection will climb, but the total should also adjust to 7.5.

FanDuel has been aggressive with pricing, while BetMGM is being conservative by trading the Over 6.5 at -105 versus the +112 we see at FanDuel. You should only buy this prop at FanDuel because the BetMGM price of -105 will lower your positive expected value from 25% to 16%.

NBA player prop picks made 01/18/2023 at 11:00 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Jon Metler

Jon Metler is a Sports Betting Analyst at SportsbookReview.com. Having played, coached, and officiated basketball, he immediately turned his attention to the NBA and College Basketball when he entered the sports betting space. Sports betting has been a part of his life for over 13 years, and he specializes in futures markets and player props, particularly in the NBA. In pursuit of value, he keeps a close eye on movements in the betting markets. He believes strongly in analytics and staying ahead of the curve; let the numbers do the talking. A graduate of the University of Windsor with a degree in Sports Studies, Jon enjoys spending time with his dogs when he isn't watching basketball.