Mavericks vs. Warriors Game 5 NBA Picks: Golden State Will Close Out Series at Home

The Golden State Warriors dropped their first game of the series on Tuesday and will look to shut the door on the Western Conference Finals against the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday. We break down Game 5 with our Mavericks-Warriors picks.

Up 3-1 in the Western Conference Finals, the Warriors return to the Bay Area to close out their series against the Mavericks. The winners of the first three games, Golden State has the benefit of history on its side considering no team has ever erased a 3-0 deficit in league history.

The Mavericks held a 29-point lead over the Warriors at one point in Game 4, but they saw their lead evaporate to single digits late in the fourth thanks to a super run from the Warriors’ second unit. Dallas ultimately pulled out the 119-109 win.

Here are my picks and predictions for Thursday’s NBA Game 5 matchup between the Mavericks and Warriors (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star scale).

Mavericks vs. Warriors Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, May 26, 9 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: Chase Center, San Francisco, CA

Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds Analysis

The Warriors opened as 7.5-point favorites and ever since this line has been hit with consistency. Bettors seem aligned on the Warriors but the spread has slowly drifted to seven points across the board. BetMGM is actually hanging 6.5 on Golden State, with WynnBet offering the least juice on seven points.

Early reporting from DraftKings would seem to disagree, though, with the notion that everyone is in agreement on Dallas. It's reporting 71% of the spread tickets and 62% of the handle is on the Warriors. 

As for the total, 68% of the bets and 71% of the handle at DraftKings are on the Over 215.5. That is the consensus number, with WynnBet the only book brave enough to hang 216. Like the movement with the spread, the total has actually drifted down from the opening number of 216 despite all the activity to the contrary.

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Mavericks vs. Warriors Picks

Warriors -6.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ?????Over 215.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ????Maxi Kleber Under 1.5 3-pointers (-130 via DraftKings) ?????

Mavericks vs. Warriors Predictions

Warriors -6.5 (-115)

Golden State is so, so much better than Dallas. The only way the Mavericks have been able to win games in the playoffs is with ridiculous shooting nights, and even a 46.7% clip from 3-point range in Game 2 in the Bay Area wasn’t enough to bring home a win. Against teams that straight-up had no plan offensively, like the Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz, it was easy for the Mavericks to hang around and win games, but against an efficient offense like Golden State, the Mavericks are toast.

Dallas ranked in the bottom half of the league in defensive rating for the second half of the season and that play has reared its ugly head during the Western Conference Finals. Golden State had a rare bad shooting night in Game 4, yet still almost pulled a comeback from 29 points down when Dallas went cold in the fourth quarter.

The biggest factor here, though, will continue to be the rebounding disparity. The Mavericks have been out-rebounded in every single game and registered a series-low 9.1% offensive rebounding rate in Game 4. While there were fewer opportunities with all the made shots, they were still unable to earn second chances. Those are going to be key when they inevitably go cold.

Over 215.5 (-110)

The Mavericks have taken almost 55% of their shots from 3-point range in this series, and there should be no stopping them now with their backs against the wall. Forty-three of their 82 looks in Game 4 were from deep and I’d expect that number to balloon even more.

With that, I think we’ll continue to see the pace pushed in this series. It rose from 92 in Game 3 to 97.5 in Game 4, when the Mavericks came out with a sense of urgency. That’s roughly where I’d expect it to sit in Game 5, and judging by the Mavericks’ inability to keep their defensive rating under 111.2 in this series (and seeing it hit 128.6 in Game 2) I’d think Golden State will enjoy the higher pace and contribute to the total.

While the Over has hit just twice in this series, they’ve come in the last three games when the number has come back down to Earth.

Kleber Under 1.5 3-pointers (-130)

Look, Mavericks forward Maxi Kleber isn’t even a good 3-point shooter. He finished the season 32.5% from deep and for his career shoots it at 35.9% from beyond the arc. The latter is slightly above average at best, and the former is straight-up bad.

Kleber’s inability to find his jumper has been a consistent theme in this series. The stretch five has routinely passed up open 3-point looks because he has absolutely no confidence in his shot right now. For the series he is 4-for-17 from deep.

Kleber managed to knock down two of three shots from distance in Game 4, but that was an outlier. Golden State has the length to force Kleber into tough shots and will make life tough on the big man on the road. It’s also worth noting his playing time has been on the decline in the last two games after peaking at 33:06 in Game 2.

Where to Bet on Mavericks-Warriors Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Mavericks-Warriors picks made on 5/25/2022 at 9:56 p.m. ET.