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Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks is defended by Dillon Brooks of the Houston Rockets during overtime at American Airlines Center. We're backing Doncic in our Mavericks vs. Heat player prop prediction.
Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks is defended by Dillon Brooks of the Houston Rockets during overtime at American Airlines Center. Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images via AFP.

With the NBA season nearing its end, the Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat play in a game that could carry some weight in the playoff race, and we're offering our top Mavericks vs. Heat player props based on the best NBA odds.

The Dallas Mavericks (49-30) are heading to the Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla., riding high on a streak of 15 wins in their last 17 games. They present a significant challenge to the Miami Heat (44-35), striving to improve their position in the Eastern Conference and avoid the shortest NBA Play-In Tournament odds.

The game is scheduled for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off on Wednesday, airing on ESPN. Luka Doncic and the Mavericks are favored by 3.5 points across our top sports betting sites, as they aim to extend their impressive streak. Expect an exciting matchup as Dallas's potent offense clashes with Miami's formidable defense.

To accompany our NBA player props & best bets, here are our best Mavericks vs. Heat player prop prediction and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Mavericks vs. Heat game info & odds

  • When: Wednesday, April 10
  • Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, Fla.
  • How to watch: ESPN
  • Favorite: Mavericks -3.5 (-110 via bet365)

Mavericks vs. Heat player props

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Mavericks vs. Heat prediction

Luka Doncic Over 9.5 assists (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There's an argument that no player in the NBA has been hotter than Luka Doncic over the last few weeks, and he's now trading at the second shortest NBA MVP odds as a result. Doncic has recorded 11 triple-doubles in his last 19 games and is a threat to go off for more than 35 points every night. However, this is a Heat defense that's fourth in the NBA in points allowed (108.5) and fifth in defensive rating (114.4). While that doesn't mean we're doubting Doncic's ability to push Miami, we just feel a lot better about his assists props specifically.

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The Heat are middle of the pack in the NBA when it comes to assists allowed per game (26.6), sitting 15th in the league. But they do give up the eighth most assists per game to point guards (8.86), and Doncic is averaging the second most per game in the NBA (9.8). He's been especially potent as a passer as of late with 14 games of at least 10 assists in his last 20 outings (70%). Since Feb. 27, he's averaging 10.6 assists per game.

The even-money odds at DraftKings are a great value with our other best sports betting apps having Doncic odds to go Over 9.5 assists as short as -113. The +100 odds mean a $10 bet would lead to a $10 profit if he hits the Over, while the -113 odds imply a 53.05% probability he gets to 10 assists, according to our odds calculator

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Tyler Herro Over 3.5 made 3-pointers (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

The Mavericks are fifth in the NBA in points per game (118.7), and to keep up Miami is going to need Tyler Herro to be at his best, especially from behind the arc. Dallas' defense is nothing special and gives up the 11th most 3-pointers per game in the NBA (13.2) and allows opponents to shoot 36.8% from deep. With sharpshooter Duncan Robinson out for this matchup, there will be more need for Herro to be prolific from 3-point range.

He leads Miami in 3-pointers made per game (3.2) and attempts (8.1) while shooting 39.4% from three. After missing 20 games, Herro returned to the Heat's lineup April 5 and has seemingly looked healthier with each passing game. On Tuesday, he dropped 33 points and hit four 3-pointers in a win over the Atlanta Hawks. That bodes well for Miami given Dallas is allowing the fifth most 3-pointers made per game to shooting guards this season (3.53). 

The +110 odds via bet365 mean there's only an implied probability of 47.62% that Herro hits the Over, but if he does, a $10 wager pays out $21.

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Jimmy Butler Under 1.5 steals + blocks (+114 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

The Heat have lived and died by their defense for much of the season and could be in a precarious situation against a superstar like Doncic on Wednesday night. Behind the play of Doncic and Kyrie Irving, Dallas rarely makes drastic mistakes on offense. The Mavs have the fifth lowest turnovers per game in the NBA (11.5) and are one of the least blockable teams in the league - allowing the second fewest blocks per game (4.0).

Even with Jimmy Butler averaging 1.4 steals and 0.3 blocks per game, he's going to have a hard time creating defensive disruption in this duel against Dallas. The Mavericks are particularly strong at slowing small forwards from making defensive plays. Jason Kidd's squad allows the 14th most steals per game in the NBA (7.4), but the fewest to small forwards (1.23). Prior to a three-steal game against Atlanta on Tuesday, Butler had gone eight straight games with Under 1.5 steals and blocks.

With the +114 odds from DraftKings, a $10 bet will payout $21.40 if Butler hits the Under. This same prop is as short as +106 at Caesars, which implies a 48.54% probability of it hitting.

Mavericks-Heat player props made Wednesday at 10:20 a.m. ET.

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