Nikola Jokic vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Player Props: NBA Predictions for Nuggets vs. Thunder Game 1

The two players who duked it out all season in the NBA MVP race now hit the court in the playoffs tonight with Nikola Jokic leading the Denver Nuggets against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Rob Paul

Last updated: May 5, 2025 5:05 PM EDT • 4 min read

The closing NBA MVP odds favorites face off in the NBA playoffs tonight tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET (TNT, truTV, Max) as Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets take on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the host Oklahoma City Thunder for Game 1 at Paycom Center.

As part of our NBA picks, our Nikola Jokic vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player props expect the two superstars to bring their best in Game 1.

💰 Best Nikola Jokic vs. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander player prop picks & predictions

Nikola Jokic Over 3.5 turnovers (-130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Nikola Jokic Over 12.5 rebounds (-133 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 assists (+110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (-155 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

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🔥 Best Nikola Jokic bet: Over 3.5 turnovers ⭐⭐⭐⭐

With how often Jokic handles the basketball for Denver, it's no surprise that he averaged the fifth-most turnovers per game in the regular season (3.3). With the triple-double machine's usage through the roof in the first round of the NBA playoffs against the Los Angeles Clippers, Jokic averaged 3.4 turnovers per game across the seven games, while going Over 3.5 in each of his last two.

Against an Oklahoma City team that was No. 1 in defensive rating during the regular season (107.5), led the league in steals per game (10.3), and had opponents turning it over more often than any team on a per-game basis (17), Jokic should struggle to protect the ball. He was 19th in the league in usage rate this season (29.5%) and had the highest usage rate of any player in the Nuggets' series against the Clippers (27.1%).

That much usage against a team that forces turnovers at as high a clip as the Thunder should mean plenty of turnovers for the Nuggets' star. OKC forced the third-most turnovers per game in the regular season against centers (3.14).

✅ Best odds: -130 via bet365 ($10 to win $7.69)

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🔥 Best Shai Gilgeous-Alexander bet: Over 6.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Normally, the best way for Gilgeous-Alexander to impact the game is by putting on his Batman cape and scoring buckets. But he might be better off taking on a reduced scoring role and being the Robin to Jalen Williams' Bruce Wayne in this matchup, given the way Denver has slowed point guards this season.

The Nuggets allowed the seventh-fewest points per game in the regular season against point guards (24.07). However, lead guards torched Denver when it came to setting up teammates, with the Nuggets giving up the second-most assists per game in the NBA (29) and the third-most to point guards (9.56).

So while SGA could still put up close to his season average of 32.7 points per game, I think he'll have a larger impact as a passer, and that's why I love the plus-money odds at our best sports betting sites. After averaging exactly 6.5 assists per game against the Nuggets in the regular season, he should be playing even more minutes in this playoff matchup, which will allow him to put up at least seven apples.

✅ Best odds: +110 via DraftKings ($10 to win $11)

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🚀 Best Nikola Jokic + Shai Gilgeous-Alexander same-game parlay (SGP) odds

🧪 Want to build your own SGP? Use our parlay calculator to find the best odds for any same-game parlay.

💡 More NBA expert picks

📡 How to watch Nuggets vs. Thunder live (Game 1)

📅 Monday, May 5
🕗 9:30 p.m. ET
📍 Paycom Center (Oklahoma City)
📺 TNT, truTV | 🛜 Max

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Written By:
Rob Paul

Rob is a Publishing Editor at Sportsbook Review. He’s been with the team since early 2024, with this being his first full-time role in the sports betting industry. Before joining SportsbookReview.com, he contributed to various sports outlets, including FanSided and Pro Football Network. During that period, he spent five years working full-time as a local community journalist, after attending Durham College for journalism and Wilfrid Laurier University for history. He previously hosted an NFL draft and college football-focused podcast where he had the opportunity to interact with future NFL players such as Maxx Crosby and Quinn Meinerz. Rob has spent multiple years working as a freelance podcast producer for numerous sports-related podcasts while making guest appearances on several college football shows. He’s also made guest appearances on SportsTalk Mississippi on several occasions to talk all things NFL draft. Rob values the way sports betting acts as a catalyst for telling stories and growing interest in certain sports, particularly FCS football, WNBA, and mid-major college basketball. He’s always been drawn to the more obscure teams and conferences in major college sports, but most of all, Rob loves using stats to find the best player props to back.