🏀 Hawks vs. Knicks Prediction, Series Odds & Best Bet: 2026 NBA Playoffs Preview

One of the best rivalries in the Eastern Conference adds a new chapter today when the Atlanta Hawks (46-36) face the New York Knicks (53-29) in Game 1 at Madison Square Garden (6 p.m. ET, Prime Video). And this time, Trae Young won't be there to haunt Knicks fans' dreams.

That doesn't mean this series will be a cakewalk for last year's conference runners-up, though, as the Hawks ripped off a stellar 20-5 record over their last 25 games without the All-Star guard in the lineup. They also sat their starters in the regular-season finale to target this series with the Knicks, who enter as -275 favorites to advance in Round 1.

Below, I break down my Hawks vs. Knicks prediction with the latest series odds, team stats and analysis, prop bets, and my best bet to advance in Round 1.

💵 Hawks vs. Knicks series odds

Series odds via BetMGM as of Saturday, April 18.

The Knicks are priced at -275 to win the series, which translates to a 73.33% implied probability of advancing according to our odds converter. A five-game series win is by far the most likely outcome by the books with a 22.22% chance to happen, but a Hawks win in six or seven carries a combined 23.33% probability by the market.

📊 Hawks vs. Knicks head-to-head stats

Team stats and league rankings via NBA.com and Basketball Reference.

Hawks vs. Knicks records & team stats

Hawks vs. Knicks season series (H2H)

🔍 Hawks vs. Knicks series preview

Follow all of our NBA expert analysis throughout the 2026 NBA playoffs.

How did the Knicks get here?

A year after reaching the Eastern Conference Finals, the Knicks fired head coach Tom Thibodeau in the offseason and won 53 games in Mike Brown's first season at the helm, including an NBA Cup title over the San Antonio Spurs in December.

Star guard Jalen Brunson (26.0 PPG, 6.8 APG) still drives the bus for the Knicks, while do-it-all center Karl-Anthony Towns (20.1 PPG, 11.9 RPG) offers the toughest matchup advantage for opponents with his ability to score inside and beyond the arc. The supporting cast of OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart comprises arguably the deepest starting five in basketball, which is why this team ranked in the top five in offensive rating (118.9) and 3-point shooting (37.3%) in the regular season.

One potential concern? The Knicks were dominant at home (30-10) but shaky on the road (22-19), which could signal trouble in a best-of-seven series format. Brown's rotation decisions have been questionable at times this season, too, though last year's playoff experience for this mostly veteran roster should pay off during this first-round matchup. 

How did the Hawks get here?

These aren't the same Hawks who entered the season with Young and Kristaps Porzingis as the centerpiece stars for a team mired in mediocrity. The front office shipped out both stars ahead of the trade deadline, and they didn't skip a beat: Atlanta went 28-15 after trading Young in early January with the eighth-best net rating (+4.9) in the NBA.

That cleared the way for Jalen Johnson (22.5 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 7.9 APG) to emerge as the face of the franchise in a breakout All-Star campaign. He joined Wilt Chamberlain, Oscar Robertson, Nikola Jokic, and Russell Westbrook as the only players in league history to average at least 22/10/7 in a season, and only he and Robertson did it under age 25. Nickeil Alexander-Walker (20.8 PPG, 39.9% 3P) also broke through as a secondary scorer and likely winner of Most Improved Player honors, while the midseason acquisition of CJ McCollum adds a veteran floor-raiser with genuine playoff experience.

The Hawks struggled this year against elite competition - posting a 23-30 record against opponents at or above .500 - and much of their post-break surge came against a softer schedule. This group is also relatively untested in the postseason, though Johnson's elite play down the stretch suggests this team has the star power to trade blows in Round 1.

Who's healthy and who's hurt?

The Hawks' biggest concern is Dyson Daniels, who is questionable for Game 1 with a toe injury. Daniels is their top perimeter defender and the best option to guard Brunson, but he shot just 18.8% from three this season, which means the Knicks can sag off him and pack the paint when he's on the floor. Backup center Jock Landale is also dealing with a high ankle sprain from early April.

On the Knicks' side, OG Anunoby sat out the regular-season finale with an ankle issue but practiced this week and is expected to play. The rest of New York's rotation is healthy.

Who decides the series?

While Brunson is the best player in the series, Towns' play will determine whether the Knicks roll to a four- or five-game series win or struggle to contain the Hawks' attack. His effort on the defensive end has been criticized throughout his career, but he teases elite upside as a rim protector when engaged while stretching defenses on the other end.

KAT averaged 28.5 points on 63% shooting and 13.5 rebounds in two games against the Hawks this season, and Hawks center Onyeka Okongwu isn't exactly a prototypical defender for chasing Towns along the perimeter. And if Atlanta puts Johnson on Towns, that expends energy better used on the offensive end. But if Towns shrinks in this series as he's done in the past, the Hawks have a legitimate path to advance in Round 1.

🎯 Hawks vs. Knicks prop bets

Series prop bet odds via BetMGM as of Saturday, April 18.

Top points leader (series)

Top rebounds leader (series)

Top assists leader (series)

Top 3-pointers made leader (series)

🏆 Hawks vs. Knicks series prediction and best bet

Series prediction: Knicks in 6 games (+425)

I am seriously tempted to pick the Hawks to win this series given their athleticism and Johnson's brilliance down the stretch. That's why I suspect Atlanta will pick off two games at home and could even push this to seven games, especially if they can steal one at MSG. Yet Towns' advantage down low is tough to ignore against a Hawks frontcourt that isn't exactly built to stop him, and Brunson always finds a way to elevate his game in the postseason. This isn't a walkover matchup by any means, but the Knicks should hold on.

Series prediction: Knicks to win series 4-2 (+425 via BetMGM)

Best bet: Nickeil Alexander-Walker 3-point leader (+100)

Alexander-Walker was the Hawks' leading scorer in all three regular-season meetings with the Knicks, and he shot 39.9% from three this season as Atlanta's most reliable perimeter threat. The Knicks will likely focus their defensive efforts on slowing down Johnson, which should leave NAW with the same type of catch-and-shoot looks that he's drained all season long.

Best bet: Nickeil Alexander-Walker to lead series in 3-pointers made (+100 via BetMGM)

📅 Hawks vs. Knicks series schedule

See the full 2026 NBA playoff schedule through the NBA Finals.

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