🏀 Warriors vs. Suns Prediction: NBA Play-In Odds for Friday, April 17
Friday night's NBA Play-In Tournament features the Golden State Warriors traveling to take on the Phoenix Suns, with the Western Conference's 8 seed on the line. The game tips off at 10 p.m. ET (streaming on Prime Video) from Mortgage Matchup Center in Phoenix, with the Suns listed as a 3.5-point betting favorite.
My Warriors vs. Suns prediction breaks down why the visitors should keep this game close, while spotlighting a player who should stay aggressive in an elimination game.
š Warriors vs. Suns picks & odds: NBA Play-In Tournament
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds for the playoffs.
| š° Pick | āļø Bet size (units) | š§ Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors +3.5 (-110 via BetMGM) | 1.1u ā 1u | Suns are 1-7 ATS in last 8 games |
| Under 219.5 (-108 via DraftKings) | 0.54u ā 0.5u | Under went 3-1 in 4 regular-season meetings |
| Jalen Green Over 18.5 points (-118 via FanDuel) | 1.18u ā 1u | Has gone Over in 14 of his last 19 games |
Total wagered: 2.55 units | Max profit: 2.5 units
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š Who will win Warriors vs. Suns?
I like the Warriors to win by one point on Friday.
It's hard to gauge how good the Warriors are, as Stephen Curry played only 43 games in the regular season, and veteran teams tend to preserve energy until the postseason. I believe the Warriors we saw against the LA Clippers are closer to what we will see from Golden State moving forward.
Score prediction: Warriors 108, Suns 107
š° Warriors vs. Suns prediction & best bet
The Warriors have the 16th-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
Warriors +3.5 (-110)
The Warriors are a veteran team and will likely play their best basketball in the postseason - similar to LeBron James' Cavaliers teams before he went to the Lakers. For that reason, their poor regular-season stats shouldn't downgrade them drastically in the playoffs.
The Suns, meanwhile, have covered just once in their last eight games and couldn't beat a Trail Blazers squad that had very little postseason experience on its roster.
Warriors +3.5 is -110 at BetMGM, but I would be comfortable playing this up to +2.5 on the best sports betting sites.
š„ Best Warriors vs. Suns player prop bet
Our NBA playoff series odds break down all confirmed first-round matchups.
Jalen Green Over 18.5 points (-118)
Jalen Green has played a huge role in this Suns offense since early March. After averaging 13.9 points per game in February, he jumped up to 21.8 per game in March and has scored 20+ points in 14 of his last 19 games.
He also led the Suns in points and shot attempts on Tuesday. His Over 18.5 points is -118 at FanDuel, but I would play this up to -135 on the best sports betting apps. Meanwhile, our Shane Thurston likes Green to go Under 8.5 rebounds + assists (-130) in his Warriors vs. Suns player props.
š Warriors vs. Suns same-game parlay
The Warriors keeping this game close means that Green will play more minutes at the end of the fourth quarter and will have more opportunities to get up shots. Bet365 offers this parlay at +340, while FanDuel lists it at just +284.
💵 Warriors vs. Suns SGP picks
- Warriors +3
- Jalen Green 20+ points
Best odds: +340 via bet365 (0.29u -> 1u)
šµ My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 113-135-4 | -19.06 units ā | -6.9% ā |
| Player props | 102-103-4 | -20.49 units ā | -7.9% ā |
| Parlays | 8-30 | +0.08 units ā | 0.7% ā |
| Spreads | 2-1 | +1.4 units ā | 35.9% ā |
| Totals | 1-1 | -0.05 units ā | -4.5% ā |
š” How I'm betting Warriors vs. Suns: NBA Play-In Tournament strategy
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
I risked 1.1u on the spread, as I believe the market is underreacting to how well the Warriors played in the 9-10 game, but the number is not ridiculous enough for me to wager more. I only risked 0.54u on the Over/Under because, while I like the bet directionally, the total is not set far from where Iād price it. For my Green prop, I risked 1.18u because, even though it's early in the betting cycle, FanDuel is among the best NBA betting sites when it comes to pricing player props, so I don't want to be too aggressive.
š Live Warriors vs. Suns odds: NBA Play-In Tournament
This line opened at Suns -3 (-110) at Circa on Thursday morning. A little money has since come in on Phoenix, but I expect this game to return to Suns -3 (-110) across the board before tipoff.
š Warriors vs. Suns betting trends
| Warriors | Statistic | Suns |
|---|---|---|
| 37-45 | Record | 45-37 |
| 35-47-1 | ATS record | 46-34-3 |
| 50-33 | O/U record | 38-45 |
| 3-7 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 115 | Offensive rating | 115.4 |
| 115.6 | Defensive rating | 112.9 |
| -0.6 | Net rating | 1.5 |
š Warriors vs. Suns injuries
šŗ How to watch Warriors vs. Suns: NBA Play-In Tournament
- Date: Friday, April 17
- Tipoff: 10 p.m. ET
- Location: Mortgage Matchup Center (Phoenix)
- TV: Streaming on Prime Video
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