Our Best NBA Player Prop Bets Tonight: Expert Picks & Predictions for March 14

We prepare for the weekend with Friday's 10-game NBA slate and offer our best player props for tonight's games.

Andrew Brennan

Last updated: March 14, 2025 10:55 AM EDT • 6 min read

We offer our best NBA player props today. — Pictured: Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic reacts in the second quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Photo by Ron Chenoy via Imagn Images.

There are 10 games in the NBA tonight featuring some of the biggest teams and their brightest stars. Our best NBA player props today get started in Philadelphia with an Under for a scorer on a tanking team, and we complete them with a pair of picks from the day's main event: the Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets.

It hasn't yet affected the Lakers' NBA championship odds, but LeBron James' absence is quite obviously causing problems for this team. L.A. is coming off a 20-point loss last night, and I'm fading its healthy superstar in tonight's exciting showdown.

💰 Best NBA player prop bets & odds tonight: March 14

Here are my best NBA player prop bets and odds tonight with my pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale. You can also check out our NBA player prop odds tool for the latest NBA odds at the best legal sportsbooks in your region.

Kelly Oubre player prop pick: Under 16.5 points (-120 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Fred VanVleet player prop pick: Over 11.5 points (-125 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Luka Doncic player prop pick: Under 32.5 points (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
Nikola Jokic player prop pick: Under 10.5 assists (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

🎯 Best NBA player prop predictions & expert picks today

Here's a breakdown of my best NBA player prop predictions and expert picks today. Check out the rest of our NBA picks along with our guide on how to bet on the NBA.

🏀 Kelly Oubre (76ers) Under 16.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -120 via BetMGM (bet $10 to win $8.33)

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It appears Quentin Grimes is the last man standing in Philadelphia, as Oubre has gotten the message that this team wants to lose after a trio of strong performances.

Oubre put up at least 20 points in three straight games before dropping a combined 19 in the last two. Tonight against the Indiana Pacers, he's projected to score 13.1, a nearly identical mark to what he managed last game in 26 minutes against the Toronto Raptors.

Grimes continued to torment Under bettors in that one, putting up 29 points in the defeat, so though his projection is just 18.6 tonight vs. a betting total of 20.5, I'm going to ignore his scoring props until he shows he's respecting the tank. Fortunately, Oubre is on board, but our best NBA betting sites apparently didn't get the memo.

This line should be trading at 14.5, or 15.5 at heavy minus money. Instead, we're getting Under 16.5 at just -120 when the break-even price is -282 based on this projection. Smash this like the Pacers will smash the 76ers.

📊 Kelly Oubre player prop odds vs. Pacers

🏀 Fred VanVleet (Rockets) Over 11.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -125 via DraftKings (bet $10 to win $8)

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I bet the Over on this same total for VanVleet two nights ago, and he came up one basket short, finishing with 10 points. But shooters shoot, something I'm hoping VanVleet remembers tonight.

The Houston Rockets point guard is averaging 12.9 field-goal attempts per game this season, which is actually the fewest he's recorded since 2018-19. Despite that, though, he's still averaging 14.3 points per game, well above this number. The problem is that he's taken fewer than 10 shots in each of his two games since returning from injury. However, following a 1-for-8 effort in his first game back, his 4-for-9 showing on Wednesday provides me with some optimism for tonight.

VanVleet is projected to score 14.4 points tonight in what should be a blowout, so we'll need him to get these points early in the contest. It feels a bit sketchy, but the value is too good to pass on. The break-even point on this Over is closer to -200, which is why a number of our best sports betting sites already have this total at 12.5.

I'd play Over 12.5 to as short as -120 before I'd ditch this prop entirely, so act quickly.

📊 Fred VanVleet player prop odds vs. Mavericks

🏀 Luka Doncic (Lakers) Under 32.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $8.70)

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And now we come to the main event, which features two very sweaty Unders.

First, we're fading Doncic as a scorer one night after he dropped 45 points. So, why, exactly are we doing that? Well, it's precisely because he just dropped 45 and because he did so last night.

On the second game of a back-to-back, I don't think we'll see Doncic play heavy minutes in what could be a blowout on the road. He's played at least 36 minutes in four straight games, and Los Angeles could look to limit him somewhat tonight, especially with LeBron already sidelined.

Doncic is still expected to have a big game - he's projected for 29.5 points. However, that's more than a full bucket below what he'd need to clear this total, and, as a result, the break-even price on Under 32.5 is -192.

DraftKings has already moved this to 31.5, and at that point the Under becomes a much bigger risk. I'd play Under 32.5 at basically any available price, because this number will move before the odds reach a point that I'd be uncomfortable betting for this total.

📊 Luka Doncic player prop odds vs. Nuggets

🏀 Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) Under 10.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -115 via bet365 (bet $10 to win $8.70)

And now we come to Jokic, another very scary fade. But it's for mostly the same reasons here: Jokic has played heavy minutes lately (logging at least 40 in three of his last four) and he could receive some extra rest if this game gets out of hand, as is the expectation based on the Nuggets being the biggest favorites tonight.

As was the case with Doncic, Jokic is still expected to have a big night. There's no shame in an assist projection of 9.3 - it's among the highest for any player tonight. However, when we run that number against Under 10.5 assists at -115 odds, we're getting nearly 24% +EV on this bet.

There's a reason three of our other best sports betting apps offer this Under at odds hovering around -130 and why FanDuel is already at 9.5. If only the latter total is available when you see this, I'd leave this alone. But I'd play Under 10.5 at any of the available prices.

📊 Nikola Jokic player prop odds vs. Lakers

🏀 Best NBA betting sites

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Written By:
Andrew Brennan

Andrew Brennan is a publishing editor for Sportsbook Review. He also heads the website’s MLB coverage, from the various futures markets to daily picks. Andrew believes a math-based approach is the best way to enjoy long-term success in sports betting, and he’s spent the better part of the last year fine-tuning his own process for MLB, NBA, and NFL picks. Andrew uses eight different sportsbooks to find the best odds available and various projection models to gather as much information as he can. His most used sportsbooks are bet365, FanDuel, and theScore Bet. When it comes to daily projection models, he regularly references NumberFire across all sports, as it’s one of the best free tools available. In terms of which daily markets Andrew attacks, he almost exclusively bets on pitcher strikeouts for baseball. When the winter rolls around, you’ll see him providing more variety when it comes to the NBA (points, assists, rebounds) and NFL (almost any offensive-based player prop). He used these tools to go +150 units in 2023. Andrew is also a passionate fantasy sports player. He’s played fantasy football, fantasy Premier League, and fantasy baseball for the last decade. He graduated from Durham College with his diploma in journalism after earning his degree in law from Carleton University. He’s worked in sports media since early 2017, first contributing at FanSided before moving to theScore. He joined SBR in 2022.