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NBA Odds & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Friday

Ahaan Rungta

Last Updated: March 10, 2023 2:51 PM EST • 4 min 33 sec read.

Best bets today from around the NBA.
Best bets today from around the NBA.

Check out below as we look at the NBA best bets for Friday based on the top NBA odds.

We have a six-game NBA slate Friday night, including a Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat rematch on NBA TV and a late-night Toronto Raptors vs. Los Angeles Lakers national TV contest with play-in spots on the line. We’ve found some spots where there is value for your bankroll. Without further adieu…

Here are our NBA best bets for Friday (odds via DraftKings and FanDuel; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our NBA picks and our best NBA betting sites.

Friday’s NBA schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

  • Portland Trail Blazers vs. Philadelphia 76ers (-9.5)
  • Atlanta Hawks (-1.5) vs. Washington Wizards
  • Brooklyn Nets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (-4.5)
  • Denver Nuggets (-12.5) vs. San Antonio Spurs
  • Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat (-2)
  • Toronto Raptors (-2) vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Friday’s NBA best bets

  • Spread: Nuggets -12.5 vs. Spurs (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
  • Total: Hawks-Wizards Under 238 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Jarred Vanderbilt Over 7.5 rebounds (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Player prop: Donovan Mitchell Over 5.5 assists (+108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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NBA top picks

Spread: Nuggets -12.5 (-110 via DraftKings) vs. Spurs ⭐⭐

Buying huge spreads like this in the NBA is often scary—but the Denver Nuggets on Friday make it less so. So far, over 65% of the public ATS action is backing the San Antonio Spurs to at least cover the 12.5 points. Yet, the line hasn’t moved; the public is overreacting to the Nuggets losing in embarrassing fashion to the Chicago Bulls a couple of days ago. In spots like these, Denver has been great to bet on. The Nuggets are 5-0 straight up and 5-0 ATS in games following losses of 19-plus points.

Even though the Nuggets are in a comfortable spot atop the Western Conference standings, the Spurs are just in an ugly position to give them any sort of scare. Since Zach Collins became the permanent starter for the Spurs at center in place of Jakob Poeltl, the Spurs are a bottom-five defense in the restricted area, in the paint, and against corner threes.

Enter: the Denver Nuggets, whose offense runs through center Nikola Jokić, one of the best post-passers in NBA history. Since the All-Star break, the Nuggets rank in the top 10 of the league in field goal attempts per game in the restricted area and from the corner three zone. On the defensive end of the ball, the Nuggets will have their core of Jokić and Aaron Gordon healthy for this game, and that'll be enough to overcome a Spurs offense that is top-heavy and ranks dead-last in efficiency in the restricted area since the All-Star break.

The Spurs have shot relatively well from three over their last two games and scored 110 points in each contest but the Nuggets are the perfect candidate to humble them and make things simple early in a Friday beatdown.

Total: Hawks-Wizards Under 238 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

These two teams have faced each other twice already this season. In Atlanta last month, they totaled 235 points. In Washington earlier this week, they totaled 242 points. In the first matchup, the Hawks shot an impressive 37.1% from three and in the more recent matchup, both teams lit it up when going 41.4% from three.

It is smart to bet on negative regression on the offensive end of the ball, especially from two teams that don’t identify fast pace as their comfort zone. Since the All-Star break, the Hawks and Wizards rank 15th and 19th in the NBA, respectively, in pace. With both teams fully healthy and now utilizing their defensive weapons, seeing each other this often should help them match up and play stronger defense as they fight for seeding in the Eastern Conference play-in/playoff race.

Player Prop: Jarred Vanderbilt Over 7.5 rebounds (-115 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Guessing lineups for Darvin Ham’s Lakers has been an adventure this season but this is the perfect spot to target the volatile opportunity for Vanderbilt. The Lakers need wins and heavy minutes from versatile players like Vanderbilt if they want to snag a play-in spot without LeBron James. Vanderbilt’s length, ability to run in transition, and defend all five positions will need to be utilized against the versatile Raptors who have several versions of Vanderbilt on their own roster.

There’s absolutely no justifiable reason for the Lakers to not give him heavy minutes and he has cleared this number even when he doesn’t. Vanderbilt has grabbed at least eight rebounds in six of his 10 games withe the Lakers and two of his four contests when James is out but Anthony Davis is in. Over their last seven games, the Raptors have allowed the fifth-most rebounds per game to power forwards.

Vanderbilt has recorded an average rebound distance of 6.2 feet with the Lakers. Since the All-Star break, here is how players with a similar profile have fared against the Raptors with Poeltl starting:

  • Brandon Ingram: 7 rebounds in 37 minutes
  • Aaron Gordon: 6 rebounds and Michael Porter Jr.: 5 rebounds in the same game
  • Kawhi Leonard: 12 rebounds in 40 minutes

Give us the minutes, the rebound chances will be there. This line is already getting juiced further to the Over on some other books but you can still get the above bargain via FanDuel.

Player Prop: Donovan Mitchell Over 5.5 assists (+108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

A plus-money prop is always attractive but it’s even better when it has no business being plus-money. In his three games against the Heat this season, Mitchell has already averaged 6.0 assists per game on 8.3 potential assists per game. That makes sense because Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra has always made it a priority to pressure the opponent’s No. 1 offensive option and force them to dish the ball. Mitchell will need to get others involved in this game that is projected by the sportsbooks to be close.

To add to the pitch, point guard Darius Garland has been downgraded to questionable and did not participate in the shoot-around. If he is out, this line will be aggressively bumped upward, possibly up to 7.5 on some books. Over their last seven games, the Heat have allowed the eighth-most assists per game to point guards and the 11th-most assists per game to shooting guards. Get your closing line value in right now on Mitchell to be a playmaker on Friday.

NBA best bets made 03/10/2023 at 2:15 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Ahaan Rungta
Ahaan is an analytics researcher who works in fantasy football and sports betting, focusing on MLB, NBA, and NFL. He's previously contributed fantasy baseball and football content for Fantrax and currently is a betting analyst for PlayerProfiler, where he has also been a director of analytics. When Ahaan is not capping sports props, he's often playing sports such as floor hockey and basketball and binge-watching The Voice.