Iga Swiatek vs. Jasmine Paolini Prediction & Odds: 2024 French Open Women's Final
World No. 1 Iga Swiatek seeks another French Open title in Saturday's final against Jasmine Paolini, and we offer our best Swiatek vs. Paolini prediction for the French Open final at Roland-Garros.
Few have excelled at the French Open like Iga Swiatek, whose semifinal victory over Coco Gauff marked her 20th straight win at Roland-Garros and 18th consecutive victory on clay. According to the latest French Open odds, she is the overwhelming favorite against Jasmine Paolini in Saturday's final, set to begin at 9 a.m. ET.
Swiatek is the second-youngest player to reach four French Open finals, joining the ranks of Justine Henin and Maria Sharapova as the only women to achieve this since 2000, according to WTA records.
On the other side of the net, Paolini has made history as the first Italian woman to reach a Grand Slam final since Flavia Pennetta's US Open victory in 2015. Her unprecedented journey to the French Open final is set to elevate her to No. 7 in the WTA rankings next week, reflecting her remarkable recent success.
Swiatek vs. Paolini odds
(Odds via DraftKings)
| Swiatek | Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -1400 | +900 |
| Spread | -6.5 (-135) | +6.5 (+110) |
| Over/Under | Over 17.5 (-105) | Under 17.5 (-115) |
Swiatek vs. Paolini prediction
Under 17.5 games ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
To say that Swiatek has been dominant at the French Open throughout her career is an understatement. Her 34-2 record is tied with Chris Evert for the best record ever through a player’s first career 36 French Open matches. And per OptaAce, Swiatek is the fifth woman in the Open Era to have a winning streak of 20-plus matches at the French Open, while a win on Saturday would give her the fourth-longest streak of all-time.
Swiatek improved to 8-2 in 10 career Grand Slam matches against top-10 players with her straight-set win over Gauff. If improving to 11-1 head-to-head against Gauff, who will be the World No. 2 next week, is not enough, all of Swiatek’s victories in that rivalry have been in straight sets.
She thoroughly dominated one of the sport’s best players on a surface where she had reached the quarterfinals or better in four straight years, and in a stadium where she won the French Open Junior title in 2018.
Now Swiatek faces a player in Paolini who does not have any Grand Slam finals experience, and who lost in the first or second round of four tournaments this year. Paolini is experienced in the sense that she is 28 years old, but also only won her first WTA 1000 title in February, with her only other event title of any sort coming back in 2021.
Tennis Channel’s Gill Gross highlighted how Swiatek’s serve has evolved to be a huge weapon, where her average first serve speed during last year’s title run was 102 mph, compared to 110-plus mph this year. Meanwhile, Paolini saved all six break-points in her semifinal win over Mirra Andreeva, but it will be a much more difficult chore doing so against Swiatek.
Paolini also only won 68% of her first-serve points against Andreeva, a number she equaled in her fourth-round win against Elina Avanesyan, but was broken four times in nine overall break points in that match.
If Swiatek could dispatch Gauff in 18 games to stay under the projected total of 18.5, we are seemingly getting an outstanding number with an O/U of 17.5 when facing a player in Paolini who is much less proven and accomplished than Gauff.
Best odds: -110 via Caesars
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French Open final best odds
Caesars (-110)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 17.5 games (-115) | Under 17.5 games (-118) | Under 17.5 games (-125) | Under 17.5 games (-110) 🔥 |
Since Swiatek is 4-0 all-time in Grand Slam finals, and considering Paolini has won just six total games in four career sets off Swiatek, the favorite’s -1400 moneyline odds seem completely justified.
Those that think this third head-to-head meeting will be much like the first two where each match lasted just 15 games would find better value in backing the Under of 16.5 games at BetMGM with +150 odds.
The Under is 25-17-3 in Swiatek’s 45 matches this season, and has cashed in just 15 of Paolini’s 32 matches.
Swiatek vs. Paolini H2H stats
| Swiatek | Stat | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches won | 0 |
| 2 | Wins in straight sets | 0 |
| 4 | Sets won | 0 |
| 24 | Games won | 6 |
| 1 | Wins on clay | 0 |
French Open final match info
- When: Saturday, June 8 at 9 a.m. ET
- Where: Court Philippe-Chatrier (Paris)
- How to watch: NBC
- Favorite: Swiatek (-1400 via DraftKings)
Swiatek-Paolini pick made Thursday at 8:59 p.m. ET
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