US Open Men's Final Predictions: Zverev vs. Shelton Expert Picks, Best Bets
The narrative surrounding this clash between No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev and No. 8 seed Ben Shelton is whether or not the underdog can become the first American man to win a Grand Slam title since Andy Roddick won the US Open in 2003. I'm not doubting Shelton's chances, but my US Open Men’s Final prediction expects the German to win his share of games and make Shelton work for his piece of history.
We started making our US Open predictions on Monday of this week, and have been profitable every day entering the weekend, including a perfect 4-0 sweep of our two women's and men's semifinal predictions. Now we’re looking to end a successful tournament with another juicy payout.
🎾 US Open Men's Final prediction
For more tennis coverage, see more sports picks and betting analysis.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev to win Over 21.5 games vs. Ben Shelton (-115 via Caesars) | 1u → 0.87u | Zverev is unbeaten in his last 16 ATP main draw matches against left-handed opponents |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 0.87 units
🎯 Alexander Zverev to win Over 21.5 games (-115)
Ben Shelton has more than earned his right to appear in his first ever Major final, as he beat seven-time Grand Slam champion (and two-time US Open champion) Carlos Alcaraz along the way. His big serve and the overwhelming crowd support is going to help neutralize any overall talent gap that may exist between the two, but i project that to mean the match has a much greater chance of going longer than any player has to win convincingly.
That notion bucks the trend that each of the last five Men's US Open finals have stayed under the number of projected total games. But Zverev isn't likely to win in straights, and his sets can tend to go long, with at least one tiebreak played in 16 of his last 18 ATP main draw matches as a favorite.
Zverev can still win 22 or more games in a losing effort, likely in a five-set scenario. DraftKings gives a five-setter a better chance of happening (+175 odds, 36.36% implied probability) than a three-set match (+180, 35.71% implied odds).
Zverev has covered the game spread in each of his last four matches against Shelton, and he has the temperament and calmness to overcome the one-sided crowd if Shelton starts getting into a rhythm. I'm banking on him winning at least one tiebreak, so an outright win with sets of 7, 6, and 6 games won would only require him to win three more games in any set he loses.
Time: 2 p.m. ET
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