US Open Predictions 2026: Men's Semifinal Picks, Best Bets at Flushing Meadows

While the women’s draw had all top four seeds advance to the semifinals, the men’s side has been anything but chalk. However, my US Open Men’s Semifinal best bets still call for No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev to struggle, while acknowledging this could be American Ben Shelton’s defining moment. 

No matter who wins the Shelton-Tiafoe match, an American man is guaranteed to reach the final and try to end the 23-year Grand Slam title drought. Our picks look to build off the consistent run of profits that started on Monday with the Round of 16.

🎾 US Open Men's Semifinal predictions 

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Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 2.17 units

🎯 Karen Khachanov +5.5 games vs. Alexander Zverev (-120) 

From a scheduling perspective, No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev caught somewhat of a break in needing to get by unseeded Botic van de Zandschulp in the quarterfinals to secure his spot as the only player on the men’s or women’s tour to reach the semifinals at all four Grand Slams this year. But Karen Khachanov caught a similar break with his quarterfinal opponent (Alexander Blockx) retiring in the third set, saving his legs somewhat for this match.

There is a perceived huge gap between these two players, as Khachanov is the fifth-lowest ranked men’s player (No. 50) to reach the US Open semifinals since rankings began in 1973. And while Zverev has won three straight matches in straight sets and held serve in 31 consecutive service games, I’m not overlooking his early struggles.

Zverev was the first No. 1 seed to play back-to-back five-set matches in the first two rounds of a Major in the Open era. Meanwhile, Khachanov has taken at least one set in 23 straight Grand Slam main draw matches and is 7-1 against the game spread in his last eight matches as an underdog at the US Open.

Time: 3 p.m. ET

🎯 Ben Shelton -1.5 sets vs. Frances Tiafoe (-150) 

Ben Shelton would normally be in a tricky spot in this situation, having to avoid a letdown after a massive five-set win over the pre-tournament favorite, with the match lasting past 3:30 a.m. ET. But not only does Shelton get an extra day to rest having last played Tuesday, his opponent also went to a fifth-set tiebreak and played more than four hours on the same day.

With every match Shelton wins, it seems more and more wrong to have doubted him after his dominant run at the Canadian Open two tournaments ago. He beat three fellow Americans in six matches en route to the title while never dropping a set and only needing tiebreak wins in two of the 12.

From a fitness standpoint, I have more questions about Tiafoe at this stage than Shelton, who ended his five-set win over Carlos Alcaraz with a 146 mph ace. Shelton also covered this spread against Tiafoe in a four-set win in the US Open quarterfinals in 2023 and beat him in straight sets in their last match on hard courts last year.

Tiafoe could take one set, but this match should go four sets at the most, breaking the trend of Tiafoe’s two previous Grand Slam semifinal matches going to five sets.

Time: 7 p.m. ET