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Iga Swiatek of Poland celebrates after defeating Aryna Sabalenka during their Women's Singles Semifinal match on Day Eleven of the 2022 US Open at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.
Iga Swiatek of Poland celebrates after defeating Aryna Sabalenka during their Women's Singles Semifinal match on Day Eleven of the 2022 US Open at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center. Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images via AFP.

For the second time this year, Iga Swiatek and Ons Jabeur in a final. The stakes have never been higher. We offer up our top Women's US Open final picks for Swiatek-Jabeur.

Swiatek is taking aim at her third Grand Slam title, and her first off of clay. She’s won six titles this season, including Miami and Indian Wells — two of the year’s biggest tournaments.

Jabeur is in search of her first Grand Slam title after coming oh so close at Wimbledon, losing to Elena Rybakina after taking the first set.

Here are my picks and predictions for Saturday’s US Open final between Iga Swiatek and Ons Jabeur (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Match Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Sept. 10, 4 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Arthur Ashe Stadium, Flushing, NY

Swiatek vs. Jabeur Picks

Swiatek vs. Jabeur Spread Pick

Swiatek -2.5 (-125) ★★★

If there’s to be a side to bet in this matchup, it’s Swiatek. While the head-to-head record reads 2-2 overall and 1-1 on hardcourts, Swiatek is something of a matchup nightmare for Jabeur.

The Tunisian Jabeur enjoys using her variety to beat one-dimensional players, and generally has the power to hit through most players on tour. The issue here is that Swiatek is truly a defender unlike any we’ve seen on the WTA Tour in a long time, and she should be plenty capable of pulling errors out of the Jabeur racket.

On top of this, she’s excellent around the net, another area where Jabeur has found a leg up on her opponents. She’s simply so good off of both wings and any edge Jabeur has in the power department is more than made up for by the consistency of the World No. 1.

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Swiatek vs. Jabeur Total Games Pick

Over 21.5 (-115) ★★★★★

This is my favorite way to play the final. While I give Swiatek the clear edge between the two players, this is not a final that should be one-way traffic.

Swiatek’s serve has been a weak point, and while she has all-World returning skills, that inability to hold comfortably could easily cost her a set. I mean, just take a look at her road to this final. She’s been dropping sets left and right and was on the verge of a loss to Julie Niemeier. She also narrowly escaped death against Jess Pegula and needed a collapse from Aryna Sabalenka to win in the semifinals.

Neither woman has really made life easy here, with Jabeur also fumbling away some leads and making some nervous errors in the semifinals against Caroline Garcia. She won’t be gifted the unforced errors that the Frenchwoman made.

Where to Bet on Swiatek-Jabeur Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Swiatek-Jabeur picks made on 9/9/2022 at 9:55 p.m. ET.