Mercury vs. Fever Prediction, Expert Picks & WNBA Odds: How Will Caitlin Clark Fare in Return?
After the Olympic snub heard 'round the world, Caitlin Clark will be back on the hardwood Friday when the Indiana Fever host the Phoenix Mercury at 7:30 p.m. ET from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
Indiana is favored by as many as 3.5 points to beat Phoenix across our best sports betting sites, which are offering the Fever as long shots in the latest WNBA championship odds.
We like their chances of showing out on Friday while offering our Mercury vs. Fever prediction and expert picks.
Mercury vs. Fever expert picks
WNBA picks confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting apps.
- Fever -3 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Caitlin Clark Over 30.5 points + assists (-106 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Caitlin Clark Over 3.5 made threes (+110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐
Back Fever in 1st game back vs. Mercury
Fever -3 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
I was initially surprised to see Indiana favored in this matchup. I clearly don't think it's the wrong call. I just didn't expect our best sportsbooks to give the Fever the respect they deserve.
It hasn't been a perfect season for Clark and Co., but the team did beat Phoenix each of the last two times these squads faced off for two of the Fever's eight wins in their last 13 games following a 3-10 start.
This is a tough spot for the Mercury, who need to play a back-to-back set in their return from the Olympics after the club's three best players starred for the gold-medal winning squad. Meanwhile, the Fever are fully rested and ready to prove they're for real after a month to reset with their young core.
Not only is FanDuel offering the best line on Indiana at -3, but it's also trading at the best odds of -108, which would return $9.26 in profit on a $10 wager.
Best odds: -108 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.92%
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How to bet Caitlin Clark player props vs. Mercury
Caitlin Clark Over 30.5 points + assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
It's been a while since we've been given a chance to bet on Clark in the player props market. And that break has been well-deserved for the young Fever star.
The No. 1 pick was enjoying the best stretch of her professional career before the Olympics, with 18.8 points per game and 11.9 assists over her final seven starts. She capped off that stretch with 24 points and 19 assists - a single-game high in WNBA history - to clear this total for the fourth time in five games.
Now she's coming off her longest extended hiatus since before Clark's senior season at Iowa, which came almost a full year ago. Clark was struggling with her shot before the break, and I'd expect a rejuvenated version of the All-Star guard to show up Friday in front of her home crowd.
Best odds: -106 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 51.46%
Caitlin Clark Over 3.5 made threes ⭐⭐
This is another bet I find intriguing, albeit at a reduced unit size given the inherent risk and Clark's recent struggles from deep.
The All-Star shooter missed this mark in seven of her last eight games, though she shot an unsightly 27.8% from long range during that stretch. She's still hoisting nine 3-point attempts per contest, as head coach Christie Sides has clearly given her star guard the green light to shoot at will from anywhere on the court.
With nearly a month off to rest and recover, I suspect we'll see a cleaner stroke from Clark against the Mercury, who are allowing the WNBA's most 3-point attempts (26.9) and makes (9.0) per game.
Best odds: +110 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 47.62%
Mercury vs. Fever odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fever | -3.5 (-108) | -3 (-108) | -3.5 (-115) | -3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-110) |
| Mercury | +3.5 (-112) | +3 (-112) | +3.5 (-105) | +3.5 (-110) | +3.5 (-110) |
Mercury vs. Fever game info
- When: Friday, Aug. 16
- Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Indianapolis)
- How to watch: ION
- Favorite: Fever -3.5 (-110 via bet365)
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Mercury-Fever predictions made Thursday at 1:45 p.m. ET.
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