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Liberty vs. Aces Predictions, Picks & Odds: Superteams Meet Again in Marquee WNBA Matchup

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: August 17, 2023 5:37 PM EDT • 4 min 15 sec read.

Sabrina Ionescu of the New York Liberty brings the ball up the court against the Las Vegas Aces during the Commissioner's Cup Championship game at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images via AFP.
Sabrina Ionescu of the New York Liberty brings the ball up the court against the Las Vegas Aces during the Commissioner's Cup Championship game at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada. Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images via AFP.

The Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty face off for the second time in three days. Read on for our Liberty vs. Aces prediction based on the best WNBA odds.

The New York Liberty made a statement during Tuesday's WNBA Commissioner's Cup, delivering a 82-63 victory over the Las Vegas Aces. While the game didn't count toward the regular-season standings, it marked the second blowout win for the Liberty over the Aces in August.

New York (24-6) now leads the regular-season series 2-1, but Las Vegas (27-3) will be looking to respond during Thursday's rematch. With just three games separating the two superteams atop the WNBA's standings, this could be a pivotal matchup in determining who will hold home-court advantage in a potential WNBA Finals clash.

Here is our best Liberty-Aces prediction (odds via our best sports betting apps; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Liberty vs. Aces prediction

Liberty +6.5 (-105 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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The spread has yet to come into play over the three superteam showdowns thus far. Las Vegas recorded a 98-81 win over New York as a 6.5-point favorite. The Liberty rolled to a 99-61 home victory as 4.5-point underdogs on Aug. 6, and the closing spread was 7.5 during Tuesday's Commissioner's Cup. 

However, I'm optimistic we'll get a close game with these two teams meeting for the second time in three days. If you disagree, taking the +235 moneyline on the Liberty through FanDuel might prove to be the more profitable play.

Much like Tuesday, my season-long power ratings are in line with the lofty spread set across our best sports betting sites. But it might be time to admit these two teams are trending in different directions. The Liberty appear to be rounding into form after dealing with growing pains early in the season. Meanwhile, the lack of depth is starting to catch up to the Aces, especially with Candace Parker sidelined.

These are still the league's two best teams, but context matters during a head-to-head matchup. New York's bench has outscored Las Vegas by 21 points over the last two meetings. The Liberty have also figured out something defensively, holding the Aces below 65 points in both showdowns. It marked the team's lowest-scoring outputs in two years under head coach Becky Hammon.

Perhaps the Aces resolve some of those concerns once these two teams meet in the postseason. For Thursday's spread at least, I'm not sure the market is properly weighting recent form, and I'd be willing to play the Liberty at anything +6 or better.

Maybe this ends up being a square play. Maybe the Aces make me look silly. But I'm done doubting the Liberty, and I'm not buying the current version of these two teams should be separated by about five points on a neutral court.

Liberty vs. Aces best odds

BetMGM (-105)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Liberty +6.5Liberty +6.5Liberty +6.5Liberty +6.5Liberty +6.5
-110-106-105-110-110

The best sportsbooks have dropped the spread down a point from Tuesday's game, but it still might not be enough. BetMGM is offering -105 value to back the underdogs, though FanDuel's current price is also appealing. We would play this at +6 or better, and the Liberty are certainly live to win another superteam showdown.

As for the total, the consensus price of 175.5 is also a few points above my projection. I'd be willing to play the Under at anything 175 or better, as the Aces continue to struggle offensively against the Liberty.

Liberty vs. Aces game info

  • Date: Thursday, Aug. 17, 10 p.m. ET
  • TV: WNBA League Pass
  • Location: Michelob Ultra Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Liberty-Aces pick made 08/17/2023 at 10:50 a.m. ET.

Here are our best sports betting apps:

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Written By:
Shane Jackson
After graduating with a journalism degree from the University of Kansas in 2017, Shane Jackson covered college sports for a few years before moving to Las Vegas to pursue a career in sports betting. He created sports betting content for WynnBET and served as a sports gambling content director for Bet Chicago Sports. Shane’s favorite sports to watch and bet on are NFL, college football, college basketball, NBA, WNBA, and golf. Follow Shane on Twitter (@SJacksonBET) to get access to all of his betting analysis.