Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev Prediction & Odds for 2024 Australian Open Final

The 2024 Australian Open final will crown a first-time winner when Daniil Medvedev and Jannik Sinner meet Sunday, and we have you covered with our best Sinner vs. Medvedev prediction for the 2024 Australian Open Final based on the best tennis betting odds.

This year's Australian Open was chalky from the get-go, as the top six men's seeds all advanced to the quarterfinal round for the first time in the Open Era. Nevertheless, the cream rose to the top ahead of Sunday's tournament final.

Friday saw Jannik Sinner end Novak Djokovic's 33-match winning streak at the Australian Open, marking Djokovic's first defeat in an Australian Open semifinal. Sinner is now set to face Daniil Medvedev, a two-time Australian Open finalist (2021, 2022), who seeks his second Grand Slam title after winning the 2021 US Open championship.

Here are our best Sinner vs. Medvedev predictions for the 2024 Australian Open final (odds via bet365; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev odds

(Odds via bet365)

Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev prediction

Sinner to win in straight sets ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +225 via bet365

A quick look at the head-to-head results between Medvedev and Sinner would suggest the Russian underdog has the edge, as he has won six of nine career meetings with the Italian. However, Sinner’s three victories in that span have come in each of their last three matches last year, with a straight-set victory at Beijing and two three-set victories at Vienna and the Nitto ATP Finals.

All of those matches were on hard courts, and even if Sinner hadn't enjoyed great success recently against Medvedev, we would have been willing to overlook that considering how well he has played of late.

You know a player is in peak form when he has beaten the World No. 1 three times in the last nine weeks. Djokovic had won 39 of his previous 40 Grand Slam matches overall dating back to 2022, and Sinner is the only player to beat him multiple times in that total stretch. Per TennisTV’s Bastien Fachan, Sinner made history by joining Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal as the only players to beat Djokovic at a Grand Slam, at the Davis Cup, and at the ATP Finals level. 

Some may still have their doubts about Sinner performing well in his first Grand Slam final, especially since he is just 22 years old and is the youngest man to reach an Australian Open final since 2008. However, his level of play has been too high to ignore, as he was the only one of the four semifinalists to win all 15 sets played prior to that point.

He was also on the precipice of beating Djokovic in straight sets, but he wasted a match point opportunity with an errant forehand and eventually lost 8-6 in a tiebreak. Still, he did not face a single break point, which in itself is a tremendous accomplishment against arguably the best returner of serve the sport has ever seen.

As much as Sinner has cruised winning 18 of 19 sets through this run to the final, Medvedev has labored by comparison with three five-set victories and just one straight-set win in this six-match run to the final.

Sinner’s young and much fresher legs should make all the difference in this match, and we expect him to close the door on Medvedev if he wins the first two sets. His serve has been broken twice all tournament, so Medvedev’s return will have to be at an extremely high level if he wants to win a set in any way other than a tiebreak.

This is a three-star play, as we are completely buying Sinner’s ability to come through as a favorite, winning 13 consecutive ATP main draw matches in that role. In addition, Medvedev has failed to cover the game spread in six of his previous seven completed ATP main draw matches.

Instead of taking less value with the -4.5 game spread, we expect Sinner to win in straight sets with perhaps a lopsided victory in one of the sets along the way.

Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate Disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook

Australian Open final best odds

bet365 (+225)

Those who believe Sinner will win in straight sets will find the best value with these +225 odds via bet365. At first, FanDuel was the only one of our best sports betting sites to release any set betting lines and originally opened at +230, so there is some steam among believers that this will be a quick match. 

Medvedev is one of three men in this tournament to win a match from two sets down. So, if Sinner does win the first two sets, bettors may be enticed by Medvedev’s live odds to win the third set, especially if they were offered plus-money for that wager.

For those that think Medvedev is capable of another comeback after getting down early, DraftKings is offering a juicy same-game parlay of +850 odds for Sinner to win the first set but Medvedev to win the match. Given that Sinner has won the first set in a tiebreak in each of the last two ATP Finals against Medvedev, that wager might be worth a flier.

Australian Open final match info

• When: Sunday, Jan. 28 at 3:30 a.m. ET
• Where: Rod Laver Arena, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
• How to watch: ESPN

Sinner-Medvedev pick made Friday at 10:53 a.m. ET

Here are our best sports betting apps:

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.

Related pages

• Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)