Dream vs. Mystics Predictions, Picks & Odds: Can Delle Donne Deliver in WNBA Battle?
The Washington Mystics return home to face the Atlanta Dream on Wednesday. Read on for our Dream-Mystics prediction based on the best WNBA odds.
A few days after an overtime loss to the New York Liberty, the Washington Mystics (8-5) are hoping to bounce back at home against the Atlanta Dream on Wednesday. The Dream (5-7) are coming off a 30-point loss to the Liberty this past Friday, though perhaps the five days of rest will make a huge difference in the outcome of this WNBA matchup.
This is a battle between contrasting styles, as the Mystics rely on defense and are 2-10-1 to the Under. The Dream are 8-4 to the Over while leading the league in pace with their uptempo style.
While a bet on the total could ultimately result in a win, our sights are set on a player prop instead.
Here is our best Dream-Mystics prediction (odds via FanDuel; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Dream vs. Mystics prediction
Elena Delle Donne Over 18.5 points (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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I have been fading Elena Delle Donne's WNBA MVP odds, but that's more tied to the team than the player. The Mystics likely won't finish inside the top two in the regular-season standings, despite Delle Donne still being one of the league's better offensive threats.
Delle Donne is 10th in the league in scoring with an average of 18.1 points per contest, which marks her highest scoring average since the veteran's MVP campaign in 2019. Delle Donne is ninth in the W in both field-goal attempts (14.2) and field goals made (6.7) per game. She's cleared this scoring prop in five of her 12 games thus far.
Because Atlanta leads the league in pace, I'm projecting Delle Donne and the Mystics' offense to get more looks than usual. The total sitting on 163 at the best sports betting apps supports that theory, as it marks the highest total for Washington since June 2.
Washington center Shakira Austin is out for three weeks after suffering a left hip injury last time out, which figures to put more of the offensive workload on Delle Donne's shoulders. Delle Donne is averaging over three points per 100 possessions more in the 107 minutes without Austin in 2023, according to pbpstats.com.
Most importantly, projections are on our side. Unabated's new WNBA props model is projecting 22.03 points for Delle Donne in this matchup, suggesting there's still value in the likely event that this number moves. That's why we're comfortable recommending this as a four-star pick.
Dream vs. Mystics best odds
DraftKings (-145)
| DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|
| Over 18.5 points | Over 19.5 points |
| -145 | -120 |
Only two of our best sports betting sites offer WNBA props for every game, so shopping around for the best price is easier than normal.
DraftKings is currently the lone shop still sitting at 18.5 points since we placed our bet at FanDuel on Wednesday morning. Even at a -145 vig, though, there is a nice edge on the Over based on projections.
That said, FanDuel has cheaper ways to bet on a big offensive performance from Delle Donne. You can get -106 odds on Delle Donne to score 20-plus points in an alternate market, while netting a +200 value on Delle Donne to finish with 20-plus points during a Washington win within the player performance doubles market.
Dream vs. Mystics game info
- Date: Wednesday, June 28, 7 p.m. ET
- TV: Amazon Prime Video
- Location: Entertainment and Sports Arena, Washington, DC
Dream-Mystics pick made 06/28/2023 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
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