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Carlos Alcaraz of Spain celebrates winning his match as we make our Alcaraz vs. Sinner prediction.
Carlos Alcaraz of Spain celebrates winning his match against Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece on day 10 of Roland Garros at Stade Roland Garros. Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports.

The favorites to win the 2024 French Open, Carlos Alcaraz and newly-crowned No. 1 Jannik Sinner, meet Friday in the French Open semifinal, and we offer our best Sinner vs. Alcaraz prediction based on odds from our best sports betting sites.

Novak Djokovic's withdrawal from the French Open earlier this week due to injury cleared the path for Jannik Sinner to ascend to the coveted world No. 1 ranking, making him the first Italian to achieve this milestone in tennis history.

Sinner's debut as the top-ranked player coincides with his semifinal clash against Carlos Alcaraz, the favorite in the French Open odds. Alcaraz has showcased steady improvement in his recent matches, setting the stage for a compelling showdown. A victory over Sinner would propel Alcaraz to his third Grand Slam final, following his triumphs at Wimbledon last year and the US Open in 2022.

Here are our best Alcaraz vs. Sinner predictions for the 2024 French Open semifinal, and don't miss our Iga Swiatek vs. Jasmine Paolini prediction for the women's final.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

MarketAlcarazSinner
Moneyline-170+140
Spread-2.5 (-110)+2.5 (-110)
Over/UnderOver 38.5 (-115)Under 38.5 (-105)

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner prediction

Sinner +2.5 games ⭐⭐⭐

Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

While Alcaraz and Sinner were entrenched in the top three of the odds leaderboards prior to the French Open, both came into Roland-Garros with injury concerns, as each did not participate in the Italian Open because of injury (Alcaraz-right forearm, Sinner-hip). However, Alcaraz declaring that he was scared to hit every forehand 100% before the tournament started has us believing that Sinner has less to worry about his injury going forward than Alcaraz. 

Though Alcaraz has had more clay-court success in his career (Sinner’s best French Open result prior to this year was reaching the quarterfinals in 2020), Sinner beat the Spaniard in the Umag final two years ago in their only meeting on clay. And while Alcaraz is more widely regarded as the more successful player in majors, advancing to the semifinals or better in five of the last six that he has entered, Sinner has the same amount of Grand Slam victories while being less than two years older. 

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These two youngsters are evenly matched, with each winning four of their eight head-to-head meetings. Sinner squandered a match point opportunity in their 2022 US Open quarterfinal match (their last meeting at a Grand Slam), and the fact that he has averaged five breaks of serve through his first five matches in this tournament suggests that he will have plenty of opportunities to win sets and cover this game spread.

This is a three-star play, as Sinner has been the best player in the world this year when fully healthy, winning 33 of his 35 matches.

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM

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French Open semifinal best odds

DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Sinner +2.5 (-110)Sinner +2.5 (-110)Sinner +2.5 (-110)N/ASinner +2.5 (-120)

We would not put anyone off backing Sinner’s moneyline odds, where FanDuel offers the best odds at +140. However, we find better value in the contrarian aspect of the games spread, which Sinner has cashed in two of his last three head-to-head meetings with Alcaraz, even though he has failed to cover the games spread in six of his previous seven matches overall.

DraftKings has +300 odds on Alcaraz to win in straight sets as well as in four sets, and those are the shortest of all the six set-betting props. However, Sinner will not likely lose in straight sets, considering he has won at least one set in each of his last 34 completed ATP main draw matches.

Alcaraz vs. Sinner H2H stats

AlcarazStatSinner
5Matches won4
2Wins in straight sets1
1Wins on clay surface1
14Sets won13
130Games won140

French Open semifinal match info

  • When: Friday, June 7 (time TBD)
  • Where: Court Philippe-Chatrier, Paris
  • How to watch: NBC
  • Favorite: Alcaraz (-170 via DraftKings)

Alcaraz-Sinner pick made Wednesday at 10:51 a.m. ET.

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