2024 Women's Wimbledon Final Predictions & Odds: Barbora Krejcikova vs. Jasmine Paolini
A first-time Wimbledon champion will be crowned when Barbora Krejcikova and Jasmine Paolini meet in the women's final. We have you covered with our best Krejcikova vs. Paolini predictions based on the odds from our best sports betting sites.
In what was a tournament full of upsets in the women’s draw, it seems only fitting that we get a Krejcikova-Paolini final, with Krejcikova never having made a quarterfinal appearance at Wimbledon before this year, and Paolini having never won a match on grass before this season (was 0-3 at Wimbledon).
This surprise final also fits the theme of parity at Wimbledon over the years, as we are now guaranteed an eighth different ladies’ singles champion in the last eight iterations of this Grand Slam.
Krejcikova is as much as a -145 moneyline favorite against Paolini on Centre Court at the All England Club on Saturday morning.
Krejcikova vs. Paolini odds
(Odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale)
| Krejcikova | Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -140 | +115 |
| Spread | -1.5 (-115) | +1.5 (-110) |
| Over/Under | Over 22.5 (-110) | Under 22.5 (-115) |
Krejcikova vs. Paolini prediction
Paolini to win (moneyline) ⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: +125 via bet365 | Implied probability: 44.44%
There are several narratives that bettors could feed into that would steer them toward picking Krejcikova in this match, starting with the fact that Paolini’s match against Donna Vekic was the longest match in Wimbledon semifinal history from the women’s draw. However, Paolini only looked stronger as that match went on, and Krejcikova played the second of the two semifinal matches on Thursday, with her match lasting a lengthy two hours and seven minutes as well.
Krejcikova is also likely a favorite in this match as she has the experience of winning a Grand Slam (she was the 2021 French Open champion) and just defeated former Wimbledon champion Elena Rybakina, who was the favorite entering the semifinals.
But to simply focus on that is selling Paolini short, as she has the more recent Grand Slam final experience after finishing as the runner-up at Roland Garros, and as such, is just the fifth woman in the last 25 years to have made the French Open and Wimbledon finals in the same year.
Many will also point out Krejcikova’s 10 doubles Grand Slam titles (including two at Wimbledon), but the skills required in singles are much different than that of doubles, so that experience should not hold too much merit. Instead, we prefer to focus on Paolini’s all-court improvement as OptaAce highlighted.
Paolini has made WTA finals on all three surfaces (hard, clay, and grass) this season while winning 15 matches through the first three majors of the year.
Conversely, there have been 13 different Grand Slams between Krejcikova’s two finals appearances, and her current six-match winning streak on grass is the longest of her career, proving she is not much more polished on the surface than Paolini.
Paolini was impressive in coming back twice from down a break in the third set against Vekic, and she will be motivated to become the first Italian woman ever to win the Wimbledon singles title.
bet365’s +125 odds for Paolini to win outright calculate to a 44.44% implied probability, via our odds converter, and a winning $10 wager would pay out $12.50 in profit.
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Wimbledon Final best odds
Paolini ML
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +115 | +118 | +120 | +120 | +125 |
All five of our best sports betting apps are closely aligned with their moneyline offerings, but bet365 is our preferred shop as underdog backers as the only one offering better than +120 odds. DraftKings was aligned with BetMGM and Caesars at +120 before interest on Paolini forced them to shorten to +115.
Those who believe Paolini will win in straight sets will find the best odds at DraftKings and bet365 (+275 compared to +260 at FanDuel), but FanDuel has the best odds for the Italian to win in three sets (+370 compared to +330 at DraftKings and +333 at bet365).
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Krejcikova has also had the first set reach 12 or more games in three of her first six matches in this Wimbledon run, so that should tempt Over backers who could get good odds on the Over of 10.5 games in the first set when those markets become available.
Krejcikova vs. Paolini H2H stats
| Krejcikova | Stat | Paolini |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matches won | 0 |
| 1 | Wins in straight sets | 0 |
| 2 | Sets won | 0 |
| 12 | Games won | 3 |
| 0 | Wins on grass | 0 |
Wimbledon Final match info
- When: Saturday, July 13
- Time: 9 a.m. ET
- Where: Centre Court, London
- How to watch: ESPN
- Favorite: Krejcikova (-140 via DraftKings)
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