Aces vs. Liberty Prediction, Game 1 Expert Picks & WNBA Playoffs Odds
At long last, the top-seeded New York Liberty host the fourth-seeded Las Vegas Aces in a rematch of last year's WNBA Finals.
- The Liberty are 4-point favorites to beat the Aces across our best sportsbooks
- Las Vegas won three of four games in last year's championship matchup
- New York responded by sweeping this year's regular-season series
Here is a look at our Aces vs. Liberty prediction, expert picks, and WNBA odds for Sunday's Game 1, which tips off from Barclays Center at 3 p.m. ET on ABC.
Aces vs. Liberty expert picks: Game 1
WNBA picks made Saturday; odds subject to change. Confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Liberty -4 (-105 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Breanna Stewart Over 29.5 pts + reb (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Jackie Young Under 12.5 points (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Aces vs. Liberty prediction: Game 1
Liberty -4 (-105) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Entering the season, there was a prevailing notion that the Aces were simply better than the Liberty in a head-to-head matchup.
That proved to be the case in last year's WNBA Finals, when Las Vegas won three of four games even without a full supporting cast to close it out. It's also why our best sports betting sites had the Aces priced at even money to win it all on opening night.
It only took a few weeks to realize that New York didn't run it back to take second place. The Liberty boasted the WNBA's best record (32-8) and net rating (+11.7) in the regular season, and they toyed with the Atlanta Dream in Round 1 as a tune-up for this monumental rematch.
Liberty ready for revenge
At times, I've been skeptical of New York for sleepwalking through the regular season - even as it posted the best efficiency numbers in the WNBA.
That was hardly an issue in big matchups.
The Liberty got up for every game against the Aces this season, winning all three by an average of eight points, and its narrowest margin of victory (75-71) was skewed by a too-little-too-late fourth-quarter run by Las Vegas.
New York dominated the glass in all three matchups, just as it did against teams all season, and I'm not sure the Aces showed enough against the Seattle Storm last round to convince me that this group can change the math on Sunday.
With Caesars offering -105 odds on a near-consensus line of -4, I'll gladly bet the better team to take care of business in this highly anticipated duel.
Best odds: -105 via Caesars | Implied probability: 51.22%
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Aces vs. Liberty player props: Game 1
Our NEW player prop odds tool can help you find the best odds on any WNBA prop market across legal sportsbooks in your area!
Breanna Stewart Over 29.5 pts + reb (-110) ⭐⭐⭐
After winning MVP last year, Stewart was fairly quiet in the regular season as her per-game totals dipped across the board. Instead, the nine-year veteran seems to be pacing herself for big moments after losing in last year's WNBA Finals.
Just two weeks ago, Stewie went off for 38 points and 18 rebounds against the Minnesota Lynx in a game that would have effectively secured the No. 1 seed. (The Liberty clinched it a few days later, anyway.)
She dropped 21 points and 11 rebounds when these teams last played on Sept. 8, and I like her chances of clearing 30 combined points and rebounds in the biggest game of the season thus far.
If she does, these -110 odds via bet365 would turn a $10 bet into a $9.09 profit.
Best odds: -110 via bet365 | Implied probability: 52.38%
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Jackie Young Under 12.5 points (-118) ⭐⭐⭐
What's going on with Young?
After an MVP-caliber start to the season, the All-WNBA guard has been a relative non-factor as a scorer since the Olympic break, averaging 11.2 points while shooting worse than 40% from the floor.
While her inefficiency isn't something new, her dip in overall production is likely explained by a simple factor outside of her control: her backcourt teammates are healthy and playing some of their best basketball of late.
Chelsea Gray has seen her minutes steadily rise as she gets back to form after missing the first half of the year, while midseason signing Tiffany Hayes has been a relevation as a microwave scorer off the bench.
As a result, Young fell below this mark in both games in the first round and six of her last eight contests overall, and we'd profit $8.47 on a $10 bet at FanDuel if that happens again on Sunday.
Best odds: -118 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 54.13%
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Aces vs. Liberty Game 1 odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | -4 (-110) | -4 (-110) | -4.5 (+100) | -4 (-105) | -4 (-110) |
| Aces | +4 (-110) | +4 (-110) | +4.5 (-120) | +4 (-115) | +4 (-110) |
Aces vs. Liberty Game 1 info
- When: Sunday, Sept, 29
- Tip-off: 3 p.m. ET
- Where: Barclays Center (Brooklyn, N.Y.)
- How to watch: ABC
- Favorite: Liberty -4.5 (+100 via BetMGM)
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