Aces vs. Sparks WNBA Picks: Will Las Vegas Rebound From Rough Stretch?

The betting market is hammering the road favorite Las Vegas Aces as they try to get back on track against the Los Angeles Sparks following consecutive losses. Here are our Aces-Sparks picks.

The new week in the WNBA begins on Monday night with two games on tap. The high-profile matchup pits the league-leading Aces against the Sparks.

Although the Aces (9-8 against the spread, 11-6 Over/Under) are still the top team in the league, the past week has made them look extremely vulnerable for the first time all season. Las Vegas comes into this game off of back-to-back home losses to Chicago and Washington. 

The Sparks (8-9 ATS, 11-6 O/U) certainly know a thing or two about struggling with inconsistency this season. That theme continued for L.A. throughout this past week. Just two days after they were blown out by Chicago at home, the Sparks pulled off a rather shocking road win over Seattle.

Here are my WNBA picks and predictions for Monday night’s game between the Aces and Sparks (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Aces vs. Sparks Game Info

Date: Monday, June 27, 10 p.m. ETCoverage: NBA TVLocation: Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, CA

Aces vs. Sparks Odds

Aces vs. Sparks Odds Analysis

There has been a significant line move on the point spread for Monday’s matchup. After three straight disappointing performances at home, oddsmakers opened the spread at Aces -4.5. The market clearly felt that that line was too low. The number has since been driven up to favor Las Vegas by 7.5 points or more.

While the point spread has seen a major adjustment, the total has held steady thus far. An opening O/U of 174.5 is the line that still exists at virtually every major sportsbook.

If the spread continues to grow, it will be interesting to see at what point sharp buy-back on the Sparks starts to occur. Even with the 3-point swing that has taken place, the Aces have still attracted nearly 70% of all public ATS bets as 7.5-point road favorites.

Aces vs. Sparks Picks

Spread: Aces -7.5 (-110 via Caesars) ???Total: Under 175.5 (-110 via Caesars) ????Game Prop: Sparks Under 84.5 (-130 via BetMGM) ????

Check out our top-rated sportsbooks here

Aces vs. Sparks Predictions

Aces -7.5 (-110)

The past three games have hardly been exemplary of the kind of basketball the Aces have played for much of the season. Perhaps getting away from Michelob Ultra Arena and back out on the road is just what Las Vegas needs.

If two previous matchups against the Sparks this season are any indication, the Aces should be able to take care of business in Monday’s contest. Las Vegas dropped 104 on L.A. in a 28-point home win back in late May. The Aces also won by 17 the second time the teams faced off in SoCal on June 11.

The major personnel advantage the Aces have over the Sparks is their backcourt. Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young are perhaps the best guard tandem in the WNBA. As L.A. is a frontcourt-dominated team, it struggles to match up with the Aces’ speed and quickness. 

If Jordin Canada misses the game (she's questionable with an illness), the advantage on the perimeter will presumably become even more pronounced for Las Vegas.

Under 175.5 (-110)

Betting any Aces game to the Under takes some guts given how lethal this team is offensively. Recently, Las Vegas has also been horrendous at the defensive end, a characteristic that the Sparks have largely held all season long. However, the total of 175.5 is certainly a lofty number to achieve.

In their two previous head-to-head meetings this season, the Aces and Sparks combined to score 180 and 161 points, respectively. In the first contest, the Aces managed to knock down over 50% of their field goals as a team. This included an absurd 18-38 (47.4%) shooting display collectively from 3-point range.

Although the Sparks have been the worst team when it comes to defending the 3-point arc this season, it seems safe to say the Aces will not replicate 47% shooting from deep in Monday’s game. 

In addition, Las Vegas is likely to play with heightened intensity on the defensive end as it looks to get back on track following the rough week that was.

Sparks Under 84.5 (-130)

The Sparks failed to surpass the 80-point threshold in each of their two lopsided losses to Las Vegas earlier this season. The 76 points L.A. scored in the first matchup marked the better offensive output of the two. Even at that total, the Sparks would still need to score an additional nine points to surpass Monday's team total of 84.5.

In addition, this betting total is a line that the Sparks have not been hitting with regularity in the month of June. In fact, prior to scoring 85 in the win over Seattle on Saturday, Los Angeles had not scored more than 84 points in any game since the start of the month. 

If Canada is ruled out or is at all limited, the Sparks will be in a tricky spot. She has been the team’s top facilitator this season, averaging over five assists per game. 

With other sportsbooks listing L.A.’s team total at 83.5, bettors can obtain solid market value by going through BetMGM.

Where to Bet on Aces vs. Sparks Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Aces-Sparks picks made on 6/27/2022 at 12:11 p.m. ET.