Yankees vs. Padres Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, Sept. 5

The New York Yankees and San Diego Padres continue to jostle for playoff positioning and wild card spots in their respective leagues, and my Padres vs. Yankees prediction expects a pitcher’s duel between Carlos Rodon and Robbie Ray, who have each had solid career success against the opposition. That has me down on one Yankees slugger with the first of my MLB picks from a player prop perspective, but I’m also taking a flier on a Padres slugger to go deep despite Rodon’s solid numbers.

First pitch from Petco Park in San Diego is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX), and the Padres are -115 betting favorites.

⚾ Yankees vs. Padres picks & odds today

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🏆 Who will win Yankees vs. Padres?

San Diego’s recent slide and struggles with runners in scoring position combined with New York’s gaudy 32-18 record against left-handed starting pitchers tips the scale in the Yankees’ favor.

Score prediction: Padres 4, Yankees 2

💰 Yankees vs. Padres prediction & best bet

Under 8 (-118)

San Diego’s offense entered this series in a funk, which is a big reason the Padres had lost seven of nine games. Over that 2-7 stretch, San Diego batted .154 with runners in scoring position while averaging 3.3 runs per game, belting five home runs, and collectively logging a .610 OPS. Those offensive woes should only be exacerbated by Carlos Rodon, who has held current Padres hitters to a .221/.311/.294 slash line in 68 combined at-bats.

On the other side, Robbie Ray has a whopping 34.2% strikeout rate in 76 combined at-bats against current Yankees hitters. 

🔥 Best Yankees vs. Padres player prop bet

Jazz Chisholm Under 0.5 hits (+105)

Jazz Chisholm raised his batting average each of the last three months, and even started September with a three-hit game. That is why we’re likely getting great value for Chisholm to go hitless today, even though he is facing a southpaw against whom he is 1-for-10 against with four strikeouts.

Chisholm is an everyday player for the Yankees, but should likely be more of a platoon candidate against left-handed starting pitching. He is batting just .221 with a .268 on-base percentage against southpaws, and I’m not highly concerned that Ray has allowed a batting average 40 points higher against lefties than righties. 

Ray’s strikeout numbers are down and his ERA is up in the five starts with San Diego after being acquired from San Francisco, but his head-to-head success against Chisholm is too great to ignore.

💣 Yankees vs. Padres home run prediction

Fernando Tatis Jr. to hit a home run (+402)

In spite of San Diego’s recent offensive struggles, Fernando Tatis is still performing at the top of the lineup. He started September with his fourth multi-home run game this year. At that time, he was batting .293 with 14 home runs, 25 extra-base hits, and 34 RBI in 42 games since the All-Star Break.

Rodon has allowed a home run in two of his last three starts. He has also failed to complete five innings in any of the last three, so the tipping point is backing a Padres slugger to go deep instead of a Bronx Bomber is New York’s bullpen’s seventh-worst HR/9 rate since the start of August.

🚀 Yankees vs. Padres same-game parlay

Though I’m backing Tatis to hit his 20th home run of the season in this game, I am leaving him out of this same-game parlay entirely because of any contradictions his player props might cause with the Under. I thought about toying with the idea of adding a third leg for him to produce a base-hit (which would bring this SGP's total payout to +435), but was scared off given that he is 0-for-5 head-to-head against Rodon.

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The fact that New York is 14 games over .500 against left-handed starting pitchers had me tempted to back its moneyline odds as my best bet. But Ray’s success against the Yankees scared me off, as did the fact that New York is just 44-38 without Aaron Judge in the lineup (36-23 with him).

For those wagering on this game, I wouldn’t be opposed to anyone leaving home run wagers completely out of their portfolio, considering Rodon and Ray have combined to allow one homer in 144 at-bats to the opposition.

📊 Live Yankees vs. Padres odds

There hasn't been much line movement in the moneyline odds at the top sports betting sites for this matchup, which suggests there isn't much sharp action on either side yet given the 55/45 split in favor of the Yankees. The most significant line movement was Caesars at one point was the only sportsbook offering plus-money odds (+101) to back the Yankees, but quickly returned to its opening number of -105 (51.22% implied odds).

DraftKings is the only best MLB betting site offering a total of 8 as of this writing, as the rest of the market is at 7.5. BetMGM and bet365 have bounced back and forth between 7.5 and 8 overnight, while DraftKings opened at 7.5 and has stayed at 8 ever since the initial line move.

📈 Yankees vs. Padres betting trends

🚑 Yankees vs. Padres injuries

📺 How to watch Yankees vs. Padres

• Date: Saturday, Sept. 5
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Petco Park (San Diego)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Yankees starter: Carlos Rodon (4-3, 3.20 ERA)
• Padres starter: Robbie Ray (11-7, 3.14 ERA)