White Sox vs. Astros ALDS Game 1 Picks and Odds Analysis

Aiming for their third American League pennant in five years, the Houston Astros host the Chicago White Sox in the opener of the ALDS on Thursday’s baseball betting card.

Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros

Thursday, October 07, 2021 - 04:07 PM EDT at Minute Maid Park

While the Los Angeles Dodgers are a runaway favorite to win the NL on MLB futures odds boards, the final quartet vying for the AL crown is tightly bunched. Houston won 95 games to claim its fourth AL West title in five seasons, while Chicago won 93 to earn its first AL Central honors since 2008. In addition to productive lineups and shutdown pitching staffs, the Astros and White Sox also have a couple of combative managers who have some history with each other.

Tony La Russa and the White Sox settled on Lance Lynn (11-6, 2.69) to start Game 1 while Lance McCullers Jr. (13-5, 3.16) answers the bell for Houston. The Astros are being sold around -130 at online betting sites where an 8-run total generally favors the ‘under.’

https://youtu.be/ARVEQu0gTFM?t=299

ChiSox Dropped 13 of the last 23 on Road La Russa and Chicago already caught one break heading into the playoffs with news that slugger Jose Abreu passed through virus protocols. Abreu was suffering from flu-like symptoms last weekend, and the White Sox would’ve been in trouble without his 30-HR, 117-RBI bat in the lineup.

Things sort of tailed off for Lynn as the 2021 season wound down, and Chicago dropped four of his final six starting assignments. The 34-year-old was sailing along late in July with a 1.91 ERA and 10-3 record across his first 18 starts, but Lynn closed 1-3 with a 4.21 mark in his final 10 outings. He does enter the postseason off a winning performance with five innings of 1-run baseball last Friday against the Tigers, helping the White Sox send their backers to the pay window as -265 chalk on the MLB betting odds.

Lynn saw the Astros once during the regular season, and it wasn’t pretty. With Houston closing as -120 home chalk in June, Lynn was charged with six runs over four innings in a 7-3 Astros win. That was Lynn’s fifth consecutive losing start against the Astros, and his last four appearances at Minute Maid Park have seen him go 0-4 with a 7.50 ERA.

Astros Won Final 8 Series at Home Dusty Baker and the Astros are healthy entering the playoffs, and the bats were clicking last weekend with 23 runs in the final home series against Oakland. Houston boasts the top-scoring lineup in the AL (5.33 rpg), and have been tough to bet at home in the playoffs with eight wins in the last nine postseason games at Minute Maid Park.

https://twitter.com/astros/status/1445865545870544897?s=20

It’s pretty tough to find a more consistent pitcher this year than McCullers. His monthly ERA figures ranged from 2.52 to 3.86, and McCullers allowed three earned runs or fewer in 25 of his 28 assignments. Houston went 17-11 in games started by McCullers, and Mr. Curveball tuned up for this start by beating the Rays last week as -150 chalk at Intertops (6 IP, 2 ER).

McCullers beat the White Sox twice during the regular season, working a combined 13 innings while allowing three earned runs. He struck out a season-high 10 in the start at Chicago and surrendered just four hits to one of the toughest lineups in the American League. The Astros were 9-7 in his 16 appearances at Minute Maid Park, McCullers pitching to a 3.52 ERA in those 92+ innings, and Wednesday will be his eighth career postseason start.

https://twitter.com/whitesox/status/1445831603112923140?s=20

MMP to be Buttoned Up for Games 1 & 2 Houston won five of the seven meetings in 2021 and swept all four games at Minute Maid Park in June. Three of the four games in Houston went ‘over’ the totals. This will be the second time the clubs collide in the playoffs, the other coming in 2005 when the White Sox swept the World Series from the Astros after their only National League pennant.

Tom Hallion heads the umpire crew for this series and will have the dish in Game 3. Adam Hamari calls balls and strikes in Game 1 following a 13-16-1 O/U/P record in his 2021 plate assignments. Hamari’s games at the dish strongly favored home chalk (20-5), and he’s joined with Hallion on this crew by Lance Barrett, Vic Carapazza, Chris Conroy, and Chad Fairchild.

The calendars might say it’s autumn, but the thermometer in Houston today will inch up around 90°, so the Minute Maid Park roof will be closed the next two afternoons. Despite the Astros hitting Lynn pretty well the last season or so, my hunch is he holds Houston at bay enough to make for a winning free MLB pick on Chicago to begin his series.

MLB Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.