Twins vs. White Sox Win Probability: Who Will Win Tonight’s MLB Game? (Sept. 6)

Bailey Ober squares off against opener Bryan Hudson (with Jose Urquidy serving as a bulk reliever) today in the third game of a three-game set as we break down the Twins vs. White Sox win probability.

The White Sox have a 57% win probability on prediction market apps, but that number should be lower considering how well Ober has pitched in recent starts. First pitch from Rate Field in Chicago is set for 6:20 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock).

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🏆 Who will win Twins vs. White Sox? Live MLB win probability

The White Sox have a 57% win probability, and more than $126,000 has already been traded in this market. Chicago's win probability opened at 60% this morning, but money has come in on the Twins as liquidity has increased. Yes contracts on the White Sox are available at 58¢, with more than $428,000 in liquidity at that price.

After losing Friday's opener 4-1, the Twins bounced back with a 6-4 victory over the White Sox on Saturday. Ryan Jeffers hit a go-ahead three-run home run to give the Twins a 5-3 lead in the fifth inning. The Twins are in third place in the AL Central, six games back of the first-place White Sox and 3½ games out of the final AL Wild Card spot.

The White Sox are looking to win a three-game series against the Twins for the second time in one week. Chicago's win probability in Saturday's game was as high as 85.8%, per ESPN Analytics, when it led 3-0 in the third inning. Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery hit a two-run homer and a solo shot, respectively, in the first inning.

My prediction: Twins win (43¢). Ober has allowed just one earned run in each of his last two starts and has only recorded one loss across his last nine starts. The Twins are 7-5 straight up in his 12 starts since the All-Star break, and their odds of beating the White Sox today should be higher than 43%.

⚾ Will there be a run in the first inning of Twins vs. White Sox?

More than $6,000 in volume has been traded in this market, with traders projecting a 50% chance of a first-inning run. If you're looking to buy Yes contracts at 51¢, you can instantly get more than $52,000 filled.

The Twins have had a first-inning run scored in 60% of their games, while the White Sox have seen a first-inning run in 56% of theirs. Ober hasn't allowed a first-inning run in four of his last six starts, while Hudson hasn't allowed one in five of his seven starts this season.

My prediction: No run in the first inning (51¢). Ober has a 3.43 ERA in the first inning, his second-strongest inning this season (min. 12 games), and opponents are batting just .174 against Hudson in the first inning. These are both profitable YRFI teams, but the market is underreacting to these pitchers' first-inning stats.

🔢 Twins vs. White Sox confirmed lineups

Updated as of 5:20 p.m. ET.

📊 Twins vs. White Sox win expectancy

Win expectancy based on Kalshi percentages at time of publish.

📺 How to watch Twins vs. White Sox

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 6
• First pitch: 6:20 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Rate Field (Chicago)
• TV: NBC
• Streaming: Peacock
• Twins starter: Bailey Ober (7-4, 4.37 ERA)
• White Sox opener: Bryan Hudson (4-4, 3.03 ERA)