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We look at our best Shohei Ohtani player prop picks as he pitches against the Houston Astros.
Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Angels pitches in the third inning against the Miami Marlins. Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images via AFP.

Los Angeles Angels two-way megastar Shohei Ohtani is back on the bump Friday against one of his club's biggest rivals, the Houston Astros. Check out our Shohei Ohtani player prop picks based on the best MLB odds.

Shohei Ohtani has been mostly very good against the Houston Astros during his major-league career. He owns a 3.51 ERA and 1.23 WHIP against one of the best teams - if not the very best - in baseball since he made the jump to MLB.

We'll take a look at our favorite Ohtani player prop picks for Friday's game and also dig a bit deeper into some of the issues bettors face when targeting player props for baseball's marquee star.

Here are our best Shohei Ohtani player prop picks for the matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and Houston Astros (odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Shohei Ohtani player prop picks

  • Shohei Ohtani Under 7.5 strikeouts (-128 via BetMGM) vs. Astros ⭐⭐⭐

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Shohei Ohtani player props

Shohei Ohtani Under 7.5 strikeouts vs. Astros (-128 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐ 

The best Ohtani player prop on Friday involves his strikeout total. Though the superstar right-hander has managed a 35% strikeout rate (second-best among qualified starting pitchers) and 12.46 punchouts per nine innings, we've identified some value on his Under against the Astros.

Ballpark Pal's projected price for Ohtani Under 7.5 strikeouts is -165, making the -128 offering at BetMGM a solid play for those looking to bet on (arguably) the most talented baseball player of all time. DraftKingsFanDuel, and bet365 all offer this bet at a competitive -130, while Caesars is at -133, and PointsBet rounds out our best sports betting apps at -135.

When comparing Ballpark Pal's projected price (which comes with an implied probability of 62.26%) to BetMGM's -128 price on the prop, we see this bet has a positive expected value of 11%.

NumberFire projects Ohtani to finish with  7.37 strikeouts. Based on that projection, I'd prefer to play this prop closer to -120, and anything at or above that number would make this a four-star bet.

For those looking for an Ohtani-adjacent prop, I'd recommend heading to DraftKings for a market only it offers.

Alex Bregman Under 0.5 strikeouts is trading at +110 via DraftKings. NumberFire projects him to finish with 0.59 strikeouts, one of the lower totals of the day. If we're betting on Ohtani to post a relatively low strikeout total (at least one below the number listed), we can identify an Astros hitter who will help make that possible.  

The issue with Shohei Ohtani player props

The problem with betting on Ohtani props is simply that he's Shohei Ohtani. Everyone wants to bet on him, and the best sportsbooks know that. Therefore, they pay extra attention to those props that we can often find value with when targeting other players.

For example, NumberFire projects Ohtani to pitch 5.80 innings, so I looked at his outs prop. Unfortunately, it's already heavily juiced to the Under on 18.5, with DraftKings offering it at -160. So, though we're getting the key number of 18.5 (going Over 18.5 would require Ohtani to begin the seventh inning), the best sports betting sites have accounted for that fact and the various projection models suggesting value on the Under, because they know the general public will gravitate toward Ohtani props.

Accordingly, Over 1.5 walks is trading at -210 at DraftKings and Over 1.5 earned runs is priced at -155. Both those prices are essentially directly in line with his projections.

In terms of his hitting props, among our best sports betting apps, only FanDuel is offering a line of 1.5 total bases. Its price on the Over is +135, more or less in line with Ballpark Pal's projected price of +127 (which itself comes with an implied probability of only 44%). Most of our other best sportsbooks offer the total bases prop at 0.5 bases, with the Over heavily juiced and essentially unplayable.

You can find some value on his home run prop, as Over 0.5 home runs is trading at +576 at Barstool, while Ballpark Pal's projected price is +333. However, I try to avoid most bets with an implied probability below 25% unless there's some sort of real edge to work off of.

In the end, the reason you're reading this page and looking for Ohtani props is the same reason why it's tough to play them effectively. It's fun to bet on the best player in baseball, but the sportsbooks have accounted for his popularity and drained almost all of the value out of his props.

If you're looking for some baseball picks that should prove more lucrative than chasing Ohtani props at less-than-ideal odds, our Mike Spector offers four in his MLB best bets, and I've also provided my favorite MLB player props on Twitter.

Angels vs. Astros odds

Shohei Ohtani prop picks pick made 6/2/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.

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