⚾ Reds vs. Pirates Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Friday, May 1

May begins with an NL Central showdown between two teams that are .500 or better as the Cincinnati Reds try to remain in first place when visiting the Pittsburgh Pirates. The starting pitching matchup for this 6:40 p.m. ET first pitch (Apple TV) is between Brady Singer and Mitch Keller. The Pirates are -130 betting favorites.

My Reds vs. Pirates prediction backs the home favorites who lit up Singer in his first year with Cincinnati. I love the value of one of Pittsburgh’s offseason acquisitions to go yard to add to my MLB picks, while I’m also calling for a quiet day at the plate from the Reds’ leadoff hitter.

⚾ Reds vs. Pirates picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds; picks rated on a 1-to-5 star confidence scale based on betting value.

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🏆 Who will win Reds vs. Pirates?

Cincinnati is an MLB-best 10-3 on the road this season, but Pittsburgh has too big an advantage in the starting-pitching matchup. The Pirates also didn’t have to travel after yesterday’s afternoon game, while the Reds made the trip after wrapping up a six-game homestand.

Score prediction: Pirates 6, Reds 4

💰 Reds vs. Pirates prediction & best bet

Pirates ML (-126)

Much of Pittsburgh’s success through 32 games is due to a revamped offense that has improved after finishing last in runs, home runs, slugging, and wOBA last year. But that same poor offense also lit up Brady Singer for a 6.16 ERA and 1.632 WHIP in 19 innings spanning four starts a season ago. In total, Singer has a poor 6.37 ERA in six career starts against the Pirates.

While Singer is on pace for career worsts in K/9, WHIP, and FIP, Mitch Keller is trending towards career bests in WHIP, FIP, and HR/9 rate.

🔥 Best Reds vs. Pirates player prop bet

TJ Friedl Under 0.5 hits (+152)

Mitch Keller has a favorable matchup tonight, as he has allowed a .220/.303/.380 slash line in 118 combined at-bats to current Reds hitters. He pitched to a 2.31 ERA in two starts against Cincinnati last year, while limiting the damage on contact made after totaling just eight strikeouts through those two starts.

I perhaps could just as easily back the Under on TJ Friedl’s total bases in this matchup (at a much steeper -191 price to go Under 1.5), as Keller has allowed just one home run in 34 innings this season. But Friedl has struggled in the head-to-head matchups with Keller, going 2-for-24 with five strikeouts and just one extra-base hit.

Friedl ranks in the third percentile or worse in xBA and xSLG, while his 26.3% hard-hit rate is on pace for a career-low. This is great value despite him hitting safely in seven of the last nine games.

💣 Reds vs. Pirates home run prediction

Ryan O'Hearn to hit a home run (+810)

Since Keller ranks eighth among qualified pitchers with a 0.26 HR/9 rate, I’m targeting a Pirates slugger against Singer, who has allowed five home runs in 29 innings and four long balls in his last four starts.

While left-handed hitters are batting 102 points higher against Singer, righties have the edge, slugging 35 points better.

O’Hearn is 2-for-2 in a small sample size against Singer, and he is on pace for the best marks in every slash line category of his career. His 150 OPS+ is his best since his 44-game rookie season. He also has a better fly ball percentage than when he finished with a career-high 17 home runs last season.

🚀 Reds vs. Pirates same-game parlay

All three legs of this same-game parlay blend well together in that they help Pittsburgh's chances of winning. But instead of using O'Hearn's home run prop as the third leg, I am substituting him to merely drive in at least one run for the third time in the last five games. Singer should oblige with O'Hearn's 27.4% line drive rate, as the righty ranks in the 21st percentile in hard-hit rate and the 12th percentile in xBA.

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.

💡 How I'm betting Reds vs. Pirates: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

The Pittsburgh moneyline play is a confident one despite the team going 3-3 in Mitch Keller's six starts. I love the momentum he has built by leading the team to wins in his last two starts against teams with winning records. It's also a fade of Singer, whose 6.59 ERA at PNC Park is the third-worst at any NL stadium where he has made more than one start. For that reason, I wouldn't put anyone off backing the Pirates team total Over 4.5 runs.

📊 Live Reds vs. Pirates odds

The Pirates range from -126 moneyline favorites on the low end of the market to as high as -135 at Caesars and bet365. Early betting splits as of Thursday night favored Cincinnati as the popular underdogs, as the Reds received 62% of the wagers. That isn't surprising considering this is a matchup of a first-place versus a last-place team. Similar betting action for the bulk of today should see the line shade in Cincinnati's favor.

All of the best sports betting sites were in unison with an O/U of 8.5 runs, with the Under juiced as high as -118 (54.13% implied odds). There were dead-even 50/50 betting splits as of Thursday night, so it suffices to see that heavy sharp action on one side would be the only thing to make this line budge before first pitch. 

📈 Reds vs. Pirates betting trends

🚑 Reds vs. Pirates injuries

📺 How to watch Reds vs. Pirates

• Date: Friday, May 1
• First pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: PNC Park (Pittsburgh)
• Streaming: Apple TV
• Reds starter: Brady Singer (2-1, 4.97 ERA)
• Pirates starter: Mitch Keller (2-1, 3.18 ERA)