Phillies vs. Mets Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds, Betting Splits for Thursday, Sept. 17

The Phillies are in the second NL Wild Card spot, just a half-game back of the Cubs for the top spot, and my Phillies vs. Mets prediction expects New York to make life difficult for Philadelphia tonight.

Aaron Nola starts for the Phillies, while the Mets counter with Nolan McLean. My MLB picks back the Mets as a -127 betting favorite, with first pitch from Citi Field in Queens, N.Y., set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX, MLB.TV).

⚾ Phillies vs. Mets picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

Total wagered: 2.71 units | Max profit: 2.5 units

🏆 Who will win Phillies vs. Mets?

I like the Mets to beat the Phillies 5-4 tonight in Queens. While the Phillies are the better team - the Mets have already been eliminated from postseason contention - New York is at home, and McLean has had a better season than Nola. Below, I analyze the starting pitching matchup and break down why the moneyline is my best bet for tonight.

Score prediction: Mets 5, Phillies 4

💰 Phillies vs. Mets prediction & best bet

Mets ML (-127)

I'll just come out and say it - I have zero interest in betting on Nola this season.

He has allowed 14 home runs across his 11 starts since the All-Star break, with the Phillies going 4-7 in those games. Philadelphia has lost in five of Nola's last six road starts and is just 5-8 in its last 13 games overall.

Meanwhile, New York won 6-4 the last time it faced Nola and is 6-4 in McLean's 10 starts since the break. Mets ML (-127) at BetRivers is the best widely available line among the top MLB betting sites.

🔥 Best Phillies vs. Mets player prop bet

Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+125)

Soto has a great pitching matchup to bounce back today after going hitless Wednesday night against the Orioles. Nola ranks in the 17th percentile in barrel rate (9.4%), while Soto ranks in the 90th percentile in the same stat as a hitter (13.6%).

Soto is also slashing .281/.418/.570 against right-handed pitching, so his chance of recording two or more bases is higher than these odds suggest. Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+125) at BetRivers is the best line available among the top sports betting sites.

📊 Live Phillies vs. Mets odds

I'm only concerned with line movement at books that don't limit winning bettors. Pinnacle opened at Mets -132, and money has since come in on the Phillies, driving the Mets line down to -124. That doesn't necessarily mean that Phillies ML is a better bet than Mets ML; it just means that the market thought the Phillies were undervalued when they opened at +119. Don't let the line movement discourage you.

🤑 Phillies vs. Mets betting splits

Betting insights via BetMGM.

🚑 Phillies vs. Mets injuries

📺 How to watch Phillies vs. Mets

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 17
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Phillies starter: Aaron Nola (6-10, 4.69 ERA)
• Mets starter: Nolan McLean (11-9, 3.24 ERA)