Best NRFI Bets Today: MLB No Run First Inning Picks for Thursday, Sept. 17
Four of the nine games on Thursday’s Major League Baseball slate are between divisional rivals, and my best NRFI bets today analyze two of those games given the extent of the data available.
Mets ace Nolan McLean has great career numbers against the top of the Phillies batting order, so my top NRFI wager seems to come down to Aaron Nola’s ability to navigate New York’s top half. And with how hot the Padres offense has been of late, we’re getting great odds on a YRFI play at Coors Field.
⚾ Best NRFI bets today: Sept. 17
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| ⚾ NRFI pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Padres vs. Rockies YRFI (-130 via bet365) | 1u → 0.77u | San Diego averaged more than six runs per game during a recent eight-game winning streak |
| Phillies vs. Mets NRFI (-106 via FanDuel) | 1u → 0.94u | Regression is coming for a Phillies team that has cashed five straight YRFIs |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.71 units
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💰 Best YRFI bet today
Padres vs. Rockies (3:10 p.m. ET)
- Michael King (3.03 ERA) vs. Tanner Gordon (5.55 ERA)
- YRFI records: Padres (70-82) vs. Rockies (92-60)
San Diego had an eight-game winning streak snapped on Tuesday, but it was still a high-scoring affair that saw the YRFI cash. Over the winning streak, the Padres averaged 6.1 runs per game while collectively logging a .865 OPS. And prior to the loss, San Diego had dominated Colorado dating back to the start of 2025. In that span, San Diego was 19-4 against Colorado while averaging 6.8 runs per game, and batting .296 with 36 home runs.
Rockies righty Tanner Gordon is a victim of pitching at Coors Field, with a 7.47 home ERA.
📡 SBR Edge: Gordon's rough finish
Not only is Tanner Gordon's home ERA more than four runs worse than his road ERA, but he is stumbling to the finish line with a 9.35 ERA and .419 OBA through two September starts.
🔥 NRFI picks today
Phillies vs. Mets (7:15 ET)
- Aaron Nola (4.69 ERA) vs. Nolan McLean (3.24 ERA)
- NRFI records: Phillies (71-80) vs. Mets (74-77)
Philadelphia enters this series having cashed the YRFI in five straight games. But Nolan McLean has held the top of the Phillies lineup (Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and Luis Arraez) to a combined 1-for-16. McLean also threw six scoreless innings of two-hit ball in an earlier start against Philadelphia, and looks to improve upon his 3.41 first-inning ERA.
With McLean in control of the top of the Phillies order, Aaron Nola needs to navigate the minefield that is Juan Soto (the Mets slugger has a 1.174 OPS and five homers against the righty). But Nola is also amid a late-season resurgence with a 2.38 ERA over his last nine starts, and two or fewer earned runs allowed in eight of those.
🚀 Best NRFI/YRFI parlay today
Given that there was more data available for divisional rivalry games, especially one involving a veteran pitcher like Aaron Nola, I wanted to comprise my NRFI/YRFI portfolio of such games. It’s hard to argue San Diego’s chances of keeping its hot bats going in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league, while I’m buying Nola’s resurgence and turning a blind eye to his .247/.353/.530 slash line allowed to current Mets hitters.
💵 Best NRFI parlay today
- Padres-Rockies YRFI
- Phillies-Mets NRFI
Best odds: +244 via bet365 (0.1u -> 0.24u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 268-443-2 | +45.50 units ✅ | +10.2% ✅ |
| Game picks | 106-85-2 | +13.76 units ✅ | +5.5% ✅ |
❓ NRFI betting FAQ
What does NRFI mean in baseball betting?
NRFI stands for "No Run First Inning." It's a popular MLB bet that neither team will score in the first inning of a game, and the bet settles after just six outs (three per half-inning).
What does YRFI mean?
YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning" - the opposite of an NRFI. This MLB prop bet cashes if there's at least one run by either team in the first inning.
What should I look for when betting NRFIs?
Each team's starting pitcher is the biggest factor in cashing a NRFI bet, but you should also focus on each team's NRFI records (home vs. away) and each lineup's first-inning tendencies. Recent form can also play a bigger role than full-season numbers.
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