Royals vs. Astros Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Thursday, Sept. 17

The Royals have officially been eliminated from playoff contention, while the Astros are still battling for the AL West, as Seth Lugo and Miguel Ullola square off at Daikin Park in Houston.

My best Royals vs. Astros prediction focuses on Lugo's recent struggles, while also highlighting how well Ullola has pitched in limited innings. The Astros are -149 favorites, and my MLB picks below cover why they should get off to a hot start in tonight's 7:15 p.m. ET game. The contest will air on FOX and stream on MLB.TV.

⚾ Royals vs. Astros picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;

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🏆 Who will win Royals vs. Astros?

I'm taking the Astros to win this one. Houston has received strong performances from Ullola and Ethan Pecko, who is expected to pitch the majority of this game, while Lugo has struggled since the beginning of August.

Score prediction: Astros 5 Royals 2

💰 Royals vs. Astros prediction & best bet

First 5 innings three-way result Astros (+100)

Ullola is unlikely to pitch more than an inning, but he should set the Astros up well, as he hasn't allowed a run in five of his six appearances this season. Meanwhile, Lugo's ERA continues to climb after allowing at least five earned runs in four of his last eight starts.

While I anticipate runs for the Astros, I don't feel good about the Royals, even after Ullola exits. Pecko should pitch the majority of this game, and in his last appearance, he pitched 5.2 innings, allowing just one hit and one earned run against the Rays.

🔥 Best Royals vs. Astros player prop bet

Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases (-110)

Alvarez is hitting just .225 in September, and in my opinion, that's a big part of the reason why the price for this prop is so favorable. In his career, Alvarez is 4-for-11 against Lugo, with one double and one home run. 

Even though he's slumping, Alvarez still has the second-best batting average in the MLB. With the best OPS in baseball, I expect Alvarez to break out of his funk against a pitcher who has allowed at least six hits in six consecutive games, despite pitching more than 5.0 innings just once during that span.

💣 Royals vs. Astros home run prediction

Isaac Paredes to hit a home run (+500)

Paredes has hit a home run in two of his last four games, and now faces a pitcher he's had a lot of success against in a ballpark where he's hit 13 of his 21 home runs this season. While Paredes hasn't hit a home run off Lugo yet, he has a slash line of .500/.667/1.167 against him.

Lugo has allowed a barrelled batted ball to 5.6% of batters who walk up to the plate against him. That ranks 120th worst of 343 qualified pitchers. 

📊 Live Royals vs. Astros odds

Sixty-seven percent of bets are backing the Astros to defeat the Royals tonight. However, because 59% of the handle is on the Royals, the Astros' moneyline has actually dropped from -155 to -149 since opening. With so little known about the Astros' opener, Ullola, I expect the public to continue to favor the Royals. As for the total, the betting public is split. The number opened at 9, and I would expect it to be there when first pitch takes place tonight.

📈 Royals vs. Astros betting trends

🚑 Royals vs. Astros injuries

📺 How to watch Royals vs. Astros

• Date: Thursday, Sept. 17
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Daikin Park (Houston)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Royals starter: Seth Lugo (7-8, 4.99 ERA)
• Astros starter: Miguel Ullola (0-0, 3.38 ERA)