MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Thursday, Sept. 17
Thursday's MLB slate has 9 games on tap, with a handful of matchups to exploit for my home runs predictions today. Unfortunately, our winning came to an end on Wednesday, going 0-3 with my favorite home run prospects.
Today's MLB home run picks include a couple of star sluggers, starting with Juan Soto. The Mets outfielder is a franchise cornerstone, and he's continued to send baseballs into the bleachers with his slugging ability. Soto faces Aaron Nola tonight, who just gave up 2 home runs in his last start for the Phillies.
βΎ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Sept. 17
See all of our expertsβ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| π£ Home run pick | π΅ Units | π Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (+320 via bet365) | 0.32u β 1.02u | Soto has hit 20 of 25 home runs against right-handed pitching in 2026. |
| Miguel Vargas (+375 via BetMGM) | 0.27u β 1.01u | Vargas is 94th in xSLG (.503) and has 8 home runs against left-handed pitchers at Rate Field. |
| Zach Neto (+472 via DraftKings) | 0.25u β 1.18u | Neto has 18 of 26 home runs against right-handed pitchers, including 7 of 9 home runs at Angel Stadium. |
Total wagered: 0.84 units | Max profit: 3.21 units
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π£ Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Juan Soto (+320)
Soto is drawing a prime matchup against Nola at Citi Field tonight. He's logged 20 of 25 home runs against righties in 2026, including 3 home runs in September.
Power hitting is Soto's specialty. Aside from maxing out in xSLG, he's also 90th percentile in barrel percentage (13.6) and 94th in avg exit velo (92.6 mph).
Nola, a right-handed pitcher, has surrendered 3 home runs during his previous start against the Mets lineup. He also ranks in the 17th percentile for barrel rate allowed (9.4).
Go to bet365 to bet on Soto's home run prop at +320 odds.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV/FOX
📡 SBR Edge: Citi Field Wind Boost
The forecast at Citi Field is calling for wind gusts of 10.8 mph blowing out.
π₯ More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Miguel Vargas (+375)
Vargas has been a home-run machine for the White Sox this season, recording 31 homers, including 12 in just 159 at-bats against left-handed pitching. He'll face southpaw Framber Valdez tonight.
Valdez is allowing an 89.9 avg exit velo on contact, ranked in the 19th percentile for pitchers. Rate Field is a hitter-friendly ballpark and will have 9.2 mph wind gusts blowing out tonight.
Vargas is in the 94th percentile for xSLG (.503) and the 96th percentile in launch angle sweet spot rate (39.8). He's also recorded a home run in his last three appearances for the White Sox.
Go to BetMGM and bet on Vargas' home run prop at +375 odds.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Zach Neto (+472)
Neto has been one of the most consistent hitters at the plate for the Angels in 2026. The Los Angeles SS and leadoff hitter has hit 18 of 26 home runs against right-handed pitching this year. This includes 7 of 9 home runs against righties at Angel Stadium.
In September, Neto has 3 bombs, including one in his previous four contests. He's facing Taj Bradley tonight, a right-handed starter who has allowed 4 home runs in his last 4 starts for the Twins.
Bradley is also sitting in the bottom 20th percentile for barrel percentage (9.3) and hard-hit rate (45.2) allowed in 2026. Neto should go yard with a favorable matchup at Angel Stadium tonight.
Go to DraftKings and bet on Neto's home run prop at +472 odds.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Juan Soto (+320)
- Miguel Vargas (+350)
- Zach Neto (+400)
Best odds: +9350 via bet365 (0.10u -> 9.35u)
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